沙田 · 2021-01-31
第 6場
2021-01-31沙田第6場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由M Chadwick策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BEAUTY SMILE勝出，贏出3/4。NOT USUAL TALENT獲得亞軍；BALLISTIC KING獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.8倍大熱門NOT USUAL TALENT跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BEAUTY SMILE 後段發力 B/TT 1.21.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | NOT USUAL TALENT 後段發力 TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 3.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | BALLISTIC KING 後段發力 N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 6 | 7.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE 早段領放 H/P/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING METHOD 後段發力 TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | BEAUTY LEGACY TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 6.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS 後段發力 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | WATER DIVINER 後段發力 B/H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 5 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY RUSH E V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 14 | 47.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | HAPPY FUN B/TT T Piccone · C H Yip | T Piccone | C H Yip | 7 | 51.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP/H/TT C Wong · A S Cruz | C Wong | A S Cruz | 1 | 63.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | MS ALLY B1 J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 4 | 5.9 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | SMILING TIME 後段發力 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 13 | 105.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | PERPETUUM TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 10 | 109.0 | 16-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 14.9% | 6.73 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 14.2% | 7.03 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 11.5% | 8.67 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | BEAUTY SMILE | 11.1% | 8.98 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | BALLISTIC KING | 10.0% | 10.01 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | MS ALLY | 8.3% | 12.12 | 12 |
| 7 | 8 | WINNING METHOD | 6.5% | 15.36 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTY RUSH | 5.2% | 19.29 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 5.0% | 20.08 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 4.4% | 22.86 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | HAPPY FUN | 4.0% | 24.94 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | SMILING TIME | 2.7% | 37.12 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | WATER DIVINER | 1.7% | 60.20 | 8 |
| 14 | 6 | PERPETUUM | 0.6% | 167.60 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 68
PLACE
2 14.5
3 19
12 24.5
QUINELLA
2,12 124
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 53.5
2,12 52
3,12 85.5
FORECAST
12,2 385
TIERCE
12,2,3 1,686
TRIO
2,3,12 304
FIRST 4
2,3,10,12 2,151
QUARTET
12,2,3,10 37,708
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 25.5
A3 —
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
1/2 60
1/12 367
TRIPLE TRIO
6,9,10/1,2,5/2,3,12 10,259,138
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,9,10/1,2,5/Any Combination 59,407