沙田 · 2021-01-31
第 10場
2021-01-31沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的BEAUTY APPLAUSE勝出，贏出1-1/4。GUY DRAGON獲得亞軍；ROMAN TURBO獲得季軍。4.1倍大熱門CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT 1.08.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | GUY DRAGON XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | ROMAN TURBO SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 7.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT1 K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 2 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 4 | 44.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | DUKE WAI B/H1 C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 5.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | HANDSOME BO BO TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 5.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | VICTORIAM N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 11 | 93.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 13 | 121.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 5 | 24.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 14 | 16.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | GOLD CHEST B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 7 | 36.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | SPEND H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 9 | 65.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 18.1% | 5.52 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | HANDSOME BO BO | 16.0% | 6.24 | 7 |
| 3 | 13 | ROMAN TURBO | 12.4% | 8.07 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | DUKE WAI | 10.0% | 10.04 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE | 9.9% | 10.12 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 7.0% | 14.32 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | GUY DRAGON | 4.8% | 20.79 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | GOLD CHEST | 4.6% | 21.61 | 13 |
| 9 | 6 | TEAM SPIRIT | 4.1% | 24.41 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | ALL IN MIND | 3.6% | 27.52 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | YOUNG LEGEND | 3.2% | 31.44 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | VICTORIAM | 2.9% | 34.15 | 9 |
| 13 | 8 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.7% | 58.20 | 5 |
| 14 | 14 | SPEND | 1.6% | 60.74 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 94.5
PLACE
3 29
11 32.5
13 27.5
QUINELLA
3,11 822.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 282
3,13 111.5
11,13 160
FORECAST
3,11 1,411
TIERCE
3,11,13 10,178
TRIO
3,11,13 2,510
FIRST 4
3,5,11,13 4,304
QUARTET
3,11,13,5 122,272
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 20.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
8,10,13/3,11,13 232,528
9TH DOUBLE
10/3 2,890.5
10/11 568.5
SIX UP
1,5/2,12/1,10/11,13/10,13/3,11 34,871
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
11/10/3 20,517
11/10/11 4,465