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Sha Tin · 2021-01-31

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY APPLAUSE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with GUY DRAGON second and ROMAN TURBO third. The 4.1 favourite CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.08.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT 1.08.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 12 9.4 1-1/4
2 11 GUY DRAGON XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 12.0 1-1/4
3 13 ROMAN TURBO SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum 10 7.6 2-3/4
4 5 HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT1 K Teetan · K W Lui 2 10.0 2-3/4
5 8 RACING FIGHTER B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 4 44.0 3-1/2
6 2 DUKE WAI B/H1 C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 6 5.6 4-1/4
7 9 HANDSOME BO BO TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 5.1 4-1/4
8 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 3 4.1 4-1/4
9 4 VICTORIAM N Callan · K W Lui 11 93.0 5
10 12 YOUNG LEGEND H/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 13 121.0 6
11 6 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 5 24.0 6
12 10 ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 14 16.0 6-1/4
13 1 GOLD CHEST B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 7 36.0 6-3/4
14 14 SPEND H T Mo · D J Hall 9 65.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY APPLAUSE2. GUY DRAGON+1.25L3. ROMAN TURBO+2.75L4. HIGHLAND FORTUNE+2.75L5. RACING FIGHTER+3.5L6. DUKE WAI+4.25L7. HANDSOME BO BO+4.25L8. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+4.25L9. VICTORIAM+5L10. YOUNG LEGEND+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT (18.1%) finished 8th — the winner BEAUTY APPLAUSE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 18.1% 5.52 8
2 9 HANDSOME BO BO 16.0% 6.24 7
3 13 ROMAN TURBO 12.4% 8.07 3
4 2 DUKE WAI 10.0% 10.04 6
5 3 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 9.9% 10.12 1
6 5 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 7.0% 14.32 4
7 11 GUY DRAGON 4.8% 20.79 2
8 1 GOLD CHEST 4.6% 21.61 13
9 6 TEAM SPIRIT 4.1% 24.41 11
10 10 ALL IN MIND 3.6% 27.52 12
11 12 YOUNG LEGEND 3.2% 31.44 10
12 4 VICTORIAM 2.9% 34.15 9
13 8 RACING FIGHTER 1.7% 58.20 5
14 14 SPEND 1.6% 60.74 14
CALIFORNIADEEPSHOTHANDSOME BO BOROMAN TURBODUKE WAIBEAUTY APPLAUSE — wonHIGHLAND FORTUNEGUY DRAGONGOLD CHESTTEAM SPIRITALL IN MINDYOUNG LEGENDVICTORIAMRACING FIGHTERSPEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 94.5

PLACE

3 29

11 32.5

13 27.5

QUINELLA

3,11 822.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 282

3,13 111.5

11,13 160

FORECAST

3,11 1,411

TIERCE

3,11,13 10,178

TRIO

3,11,13 2,510

FIRST 4

3,5,11,13 4,304

QUARTET

3,11,13,5 122,272

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 20.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,13/3,11,13 232,528

9TH DOUBLE

10/3 2,890.5

10/11 568.5

SIX UP

1,5/2,12/1,10/11,13/10,13/3,11 34,871

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

11/10/3 20,517

11/10/11 4,465