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Sha Tin · 2021-01-31

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GLORIOUS DRAGON, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with EXULTANT second and FURORE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite FURORE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.46.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly TT 1.46.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui 2 6.2 1-3/4
2 1 EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 3.4 1-3/4
3 2 FURORE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 3.0 2
4 9 SINGAPORE SLING CP K Teetan · A T Millard 10 18.0 2-3/4
5 4 TIME WARP Led early TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 1 16.0 2-3/4
6 3 COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT C Soumillon · C Fownes 9 5.6 4-1/4
7 5 HARMONY VICTORY Closed strongly SR-/CP1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 18.0 5-1/4
8 8 HO HO KHAN B2 M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 53.0 5-1/2
9 7 SAVVY NINE XB V Borges · D J Whyte 7 18.0 10-3/4
10 6 CHEFANO B/XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 83.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS DRAGON2. EXULTANT+1.75L3. FURORE+2L4. SINGAPORE SLING+2.75L5. TIME WARP+2.75L6. COLUMBUS COUNTY+4.25L7. HARMONY VICTORY+5.25L8. HO HO KHAN+5.5L9. SAVVY NINE+10.75L10. CHEFANO+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EXULTANT (25.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GLORIOUS DRAGON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 EXULTANT 25.8% 3.87 2
2 2 FURORE 20.2% 4.94 3
3 3 COLUMBUS COUNTY 19.1% 5.23 6
4 7 SAVVY NINE 10.3% 9.67 9
5 10 GLORIOUS DRAGON 10.3% 9.74 1
6 5 HARMONY VICTORY 4.4% 22.94 7
7 8 HO HO KHAN 3.2% 31.18 8
8 9 SINGAPORE SLING 3.0% 33.13 4
9 4 TIME WARP 2.7% 36.93 5
10 6 CHEFANO 0.9% 111.83 10
EXULTANTFURORECOLUMBUS COUNTYSAVVY NINEGLORIOUS DRAGON — wonHARMONY VICTORYHO HO KHANSINGAPORE SLINGTIME WARPCHEFANO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 62.5

PLACE

1 14

2 12.5

10 19

QUINELLA

1,10 89.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 23

1,10 35.5

2,10 39

FORECAST

10,1 220

TIERCE

10,1,2 586

TRIO

1,2,10 84

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 395

QUARTET

10,1,2,9 10,373

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,12/1,2,10 2,178

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 25.5

6TH DOUBLE

12/1 47

12/10 361