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Sha Tin · 2021-01-31

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT 1.22.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 3 7.8 N
2 0 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 8 4.8 N
3 0 WINS ALL Led early TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 3.4 1/2
4 0 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 38.0 1/2
5 0 DIAMOND RHYME XB C L Chau · F C Lor 10 11.0 1-1/2
6 0 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 9 13.0 2
7 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 13.0 2
8 0 BEST FOR YOU B C Schofield · Y S Tsui 2 39.0 2
9 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly CP T Piccone · P O'Sullivan 7 15.0 3
10 0 TRAVEL GLORY V Borges · C W Chang 5 30.0 4-1/4
11 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 12 6.8 4-3/4
12 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN Closed strongly XB/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 13 136.0 5-3/4
13 0 PEARL CHAMPION B A Hamelin · K L Man 6 34.0 6-1/2
14 0 GOLDEN LINK M F Poon · P F Yiu 11 50.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ULTRA EXPRESS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with GREEN ENVY second and WINS ALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite WINS ALL finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ULTRA EXPRESS—2. GREEN ENVY+0.05L3. WINS ALL+0.5L4. EL JEFE+0.5L5. DIAMOND RHYME+1.5L6. ZONE D+2L7. SEAWEED FORTUNE+2L8. BEST FOR YOU+2L9. STUNNING IMPACT+3L10. TRAVEL GLORY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (24.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ULTRA EXPRESS was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GREEN ENVY 24.6% 4.07 2
2 0 WINS ALL 20.5% 4.88 3
3 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH 13.4% 7.44 11
4 0 ZONE D 7.3% 13.69 6
5 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE 5.1% 19.42 7
6 0 DIAMOND RHYME 5.1% 19.74 5
7 0 STUNNING IMPACT 4.5% 22.46 9
8 0 EL JEFE 3.9% 25.91 4
9 0 PEARL CHAMPION 3.2% 31.66 13
10 0 BEST FOR YOU 3.0% 32.82 8
11 0 TRAVEL GLORY 2.9% 34.06 10
12 0 GOLDEN LINK 2.5% 39.67 14
13 0 ULTRA EXPRESS 2.5% 39.97 1
14 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN 1.5% 67.67 12
GREEN ENVYWINS ALLMORE THAN ENOUGHZONE DSEAWEED FORTUNEDIAMOND RHYMESTUNNING IMPACTEL JEFEPEARL CHAMPIONBEST FOR YOUTRAVEL GLORYGOLDEN LINKULTRA EXPRESS — wonUNIVERSAL CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 78.5

PLACE

9 15.5

11 22.5

13 18

QUINELLA

11,13 249

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 64.5

9,13 33

11,13 84

FORECAST

11,13 449

TIERCE

11,13,9 1,152

TRIO

9,11,13 157

FIRST 4

5,9,11,13 1,237

QUARTET

11,13,9,5 23,919

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 36.5

A1 —

7TH DOUBLE

10/11 393.5

10/13 57.5