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Sha Tin · 2021-01-31

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ULTRA EXPRESS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with GREEN ENVY second and WINS ALL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite WINS ALL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT 1.22.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 3 7.8 N
2 13 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 8 4.8 N
3 9 WINS ALL Led early TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 3.4 1/2
4 5 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 38.0 1/2
5 2 DIAMOND RHYME XB C L Chau · F C Lor 10 11.0 1-1/2
6 6 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 9 13.0 2
7 4 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 13.0 2
8 7 BEST FOR YOU B C Schofield · Y S Tsui 2 39.0 2
9 12 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly CP T Piccone · P O'Sullivan 7 15.0 3
10 8 TRAVEL GLORY V Borges · C W Chang 5 30.0 4-1/4
11 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 12 6.8 4-3/4
12 14 UNIVERSAL CROWN Closed strongly XB/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 13 136.0 5-3/4
13 10 PEARL CHAMPION B A Hamelin · K L Man 6 34.0 6-1/2
14 1 GOLDEN LINK M F Poon · P F Yiu 11 50.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ULTRA EXPRESS2. GREEN ENVY+0.05L3. WINS ALL+0.5L4. EL JEFE+0.5L5. DIAMOND RHYME+1.5L6. ZONE D+2L7. SEAWEED FORTUNE+2L8. BEST FOR YOU+2L9. STUNNING IMPACT+3L10. TRAVEL GLORY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (24.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ULTRA EXPRESS was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 GREEN ENVY 24.6% 4.07 2
2 9 WINS ALL 20.5% 4.88 3
3 3 MORE THAN ENOUGH 13.4% 7.44 11
4 6 ZONE D 7.3% 13.69 6
5 4 SEAWEED FORTUNE 5.1% 19.42 7
6 2 DIAMOND RHYME 5.1% 19.74 5
7 12 STUNNING IMPACT 4.5% 22.46 9
8 5 EL JEFE 3.9% 25.91 4
9 10 PEARL CHAMPION 3.2% 31.66 13
10 7 BEST FOR YOU 3.0% 32.82 8
11 8 TRAVEL GLORY 2.9% 34.06 10
12 1 GOLDEN LINK 2.5% 39.67 14
13 11 ULTRA EXPRESS 2.5% 39.97 1
14 14 UNIVERSAL CROWN 1.5% 67.67 12
GREEN ENVYWINS ALLMORE THAN ENOUGHZONE DSEAWEED FORTUNEDIAMOND RHYMESTUNNING IMPACTEL JEFEPEARL CHAMPIONBEST FOR YOUTRAVEL GLORYGOLDEN LINKULTRA EXPRESS — wonUNIVERSAL CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 78.5

PLACE

9 15.5

11 22.5

13 18

QUINELLA

11,13 249

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 64.5

9,13 33

11,13 84

FORECAST

11,13 449

TIERCE

11,13,9 1,152

TRIO

9,11,13 157

FIRST 4

5,9,11,13 1,237

QUARTET

11,13,9,5 23,919

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 36.5

A1

A3

7TH DOUBLE

10/11 393.5

10/13 57.5