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Sha Tin · 2021-01-31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY WIN WIN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with WINNING STEED second and NUNCHUKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite CHEERFUL DAYS finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.34.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly TT 1.34.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip 1 12.0 N
2 6 WINNING STEED Closed strongly CP-/B1/H1 K C Leung · K H Ting 5 20.0 N
3 10 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 9.4 3/4
4 4 DONC JE SUIS Closed strongly CP B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 13.0 2-3/4
5 3 BULLETPROOF B V Borges · P F Yiu 12 16.0 2-3/4
6 8 LAND POWER J Moreira · A T Millard 9 8.2 3
7 12 GOLD 'N' BOLD Closed strongly V K Teetan · W Y So 3 11.0 3-1/4
8 7 AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 14 80.0 3-3/4
9 13 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly A Badel · T P Yung 8 11.0 3-3/4
10 2 CHEERFUL DAYS Led early B Z Purton · K W Lui 11 2.2 4
11 14 BRAVE POWER B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 10 17.0 4-1/2
12 11 MCMUNIGAL B/TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris 2 106.0 6-3/4
13 1 RUBY STARS B/TT N Callan · K L Man 7 198.0 11-1/2
14 5 SAVVY KINGMAN M L Yeung · F C Lor 13 122.0 12-3/4
0 COUNTRY BOY J Moreira · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY WIN WIN2. WINNING STEED+0.05L3. NUNCHUKS+0.75L4. DONC JE SUIS+2.75L5. BULLETPROOF+2.75L6. LAND POWER+3L7. GOLD 'N' BOLD+3.25L8. AMAZING LUCK+3.75L9. SURE WIN WIN+3.75L10. CHEERFUL DAYS+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LAND POWER (20.0%) finished 6th — the winner HAPPY WIN WIN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LAND POWER 20.0% 5.00 6
2 2 CHEERFUL DAYS 18.1% 5.53 10
3 10 NUNCHUKS 16.9% 5.91 3
4 9 HAPPY WIN WIN 11.8% 8.48 1
5 3 BULLETPROOF 7.1% 14.17 5
6 6 WINNING STEED 6.5% 15.49 2
7 13 SURE WIN WIN 5.7% 17.50 9
8 12 GOLD 'N' BOLD 3.6% 27.95 7
9 14 BRAVE POWER 3.1% 31.95 11
10 4 DONC JE SUIS 2.2% 45.11 4
11 5 SAVVY KINGMAN 1.7% 57.51 14
12 7 AMAZING LUCK 1.5% 65.86 8
13 11 MCMUNIGAL 1.1% 89.39 12
14 1 RUBY STARS 0.7% 147.05 13
LAND POWERCHEERFUL DAYSNUNCHUKSHAPPY WIN WIN — wonBULLETPROOFWINNING STEEDSURE WIN WINGOLD 'N' BOLDBRAVE POWERDONC JE SUISSAVVY KINGMANAMAZING LUCKMCMUNIGALRUBY STARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 127

PLACE

6 51.5

9 27

10 25

QUINELLA

6,9 1,196.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 292.5

6,10 226

9,10 157

FORECAST

9,6 1,998

TIERCE

9,6,10 19,464

TRIO

6,9,10 2,055

FIRST 4

4,6,9,10 5,615

QUARTET

9,6,10,4 150,197

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/6,9,10 52,162

3 PICK 1

A3 27

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE

1/6 131.5

1/9 741