Sha Tin · 2021-01-31
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-31 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY FUN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with RESOLUTE second and MOERAKI third. The 3.9 favourite RESOLUTE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY FUN H 1.08.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 4.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | RESOLUTE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 2 | 3.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | MOERAKI B J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 4 | 7.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | ONE HAPPY STAR M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | HERO STAR TT A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 1 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL B/TT C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | DEMONS ROCK B H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 8 | 7.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 9.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | URBAN DANCER XB/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 12 | 25.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | ALLOY KING CP- M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 71.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | STRIKING MR C B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 5 | 11.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | KELMIMI WINS B/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 9 | 112.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY FUN | 37.0% | 2.70 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | RESOLUTE | 11.6% | 8.62 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | MOERAKI | 11.3% | 8.87 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | OSCAR GLORY | 9.4% | 10.60 | 8 |
| 5 | 4 | STRIKING MR C | 6.7% | 14.88 | 11 |
| 6 | 9 | HERO STAR | 5.7% | 17.58 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | DEMONS ROCK | 4.2% | 23.57 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | ONE HAPPY STAR | 4.0% | 25.11 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | KELMIMI WINS | 3.2% | 30.87 | 12 |
| 10 | 2 | HANDSOME REBEL | 3.0% | 33.83 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | URBAN DANCER | 2.6% | 39.19 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | ALLOY KING | 1.3% | 78.67 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 42
PLACE
1 18.5
3 26.5
5 16.5
QUINELLA
1,5 98.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 66
1,5 41
3,5 55
FORECAST
1,5 154
TIERCE
1,5,3 741
TRIO
1,3,5 155
FIRST 4
1,3,5,11 877
QUARTET
1,5,3,11 12,356
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/1 599.5
8/5 70.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 25.5