沙田 · 2021-03-07
第 10場
2021-03-07沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的BUTTERFIELD勝出，贏出1-3/4。CHARITY GO獲得亞軍；MAXIMUS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門SUPER FOOTBALL跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD 後段發力 TT 1.47.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 5.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | CHARITY GO 後段發力 SR M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | MAXIMUS SR M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 4 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | CONQUEROR 後段發力 B-/CP1 H W Lai · D A Hayes | H W Lai | D A Hayes | 14 | 122.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPER FOOTBALL 後段發力 K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 3 | 2.8 | 4 |
| 6 | 14 | TSAR 後段發力 H M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 38.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 8 | 63.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | HO HO KHAN 後段發力 B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 6 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | SAVVY NINE XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 1 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | TIANCHI MONSTER C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 9 | 40.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | CELESTIAL POWER 早段領放 V H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 11 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | SEA OF LIFE V V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 12 | 17.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | BERLIN TANGO TT R Maia · A S Cruz | R Maia | A S Cruz | 13 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 4 | ASSIMILATE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 7 | 20.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 34.2% | 2.93 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | BUTTERFIELD | 12.1% | 8.27 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | CHARITY GO | 7.8% | 12.84 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | SEA OF LIFE | 7.2% | 13.98 | 12 |
| 5 | 1 | SAVVY NINE | 6.5% | 15.36 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | MAXIMUS | 5.9% | 16.85 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | FLYING QUEST | 5.5% | 18.30 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 4.3% | 23.27 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | HO HO KHAN | 4.3% | 23.43 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | ASSIMILATE | 3.7% | 27.17 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | CELESTIAL POWER | 3.5% | 28.40 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | BERLIN TANGO | 2.2% | 46.27 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | TSAR | 1.7% | 60.54 | 6 |
| 14 | 6 | CONQUEROR | 1.3% | 76.71 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 58
PLACE
3 20
8 32.5
11 22
QUINELLA
3,8 297
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 96
3,11 66
8,11 119
FORECAST
3,8 707
TIERCE
3,8,11 3,750
TRIO
3,8,11 606
FIRST 4
3,6,8,11 17,338
QUARTET
3,8,11,6 266,598
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 30
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,10,11/3,8,11 19,077
9TH DOUBLE
1/3 153.5
1/8 58.5
SIX UP
1,4/1,2/3,9/5,11/1,10/3,8 2,421
4/2/9/11/1/3 513,404
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
11/1/3 2,112
11/1/8 681