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Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BUTTERFIELD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with CHARITY GO second and MAXIMUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SUPER FOOTBALL finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.47.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT 1.47.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 2 5.8 1-3/4
2 8 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · C S Shum 10 11.0 1-3/4
3 11 MAXIMUS SR M F Poon · A T Millard 4 6.2 2-1/2
4 6 CONQUEROR Closed strongly B-/CP1 H W Lai · D A Hayes 14 122.0 3-3/4
5 13 SUPER FOOTBALL Closed strongly K Teetan · K H Ting 3 2.8 4
6 14 TSAR Closed strongly H M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 5 38.0 4-1/4
7 7 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B H T Mo · D J Hall 8 63.0 5
8 2 HO HO KHAN Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 6 23.0 5
9 1 SAVVY NINE XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 11.0 5-3/4
10 9 TIANCHI MONSTER C Wong · W Y So 9 40.0 5-3/4
11 10 CELESTIAL POWER Led early V H N Wong · F C Lor 11 18.0 5-3/4
12 12 SEA OF LIFE V V Borges · K W Lui 12 17.0 5-3/4
13 5 BERLIN TANGO TT R Maia · A S Cruz 13 13.0 8-3/4
14 4 ASSIMILATE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 20.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUTTERFIELD2. CHARITY GO+1.75L3. MAXIMUS+2.5L4. CONQUEROR+3.75L5. SUPER FOOTBALL+4L6. TSAR+4.25L7. FLYING QUEST+5L8. HO HO KHAN+5L9. SAVVY NINE+5.75L10. TIANCHI MONSTER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER FOOTBALL (34.2%) finished 5th — the winner BUTTERFIELD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 SUPER FOOTBALL 34.2% 2.93 5
2 3 BUTTERFIELD 12.1% 8.27 1
3 8 CHARITY GO 7.8% 12.84 2
4 12 SEA OF LIFE 7.2% 13.98 12
5 1 SAVVY NINE 6.5% 15.36 9
6 11 MAXIMUS 5.9% 16.85 3
7 7 FLYING QUEST 5.5% 18.30 7
8 9 TIANCHI MONSTER 4.3% 23.27 10
9 2 HO HO KHAN 4.3% 23.43 8
10 4 ASSIMILATE 3.7% 27.17 14
11 10 CELESTIAL POWER 3.5% 28.40 11
12 5 BERLIN TANGO 2.2% 46.27 13
13 14 TSAR 1.7% 60.54 6
14 6 CONQUEROR 1.3% 76.71 4
SUPER FOOTBALLBUTTERFIELD — wonCHARITY GOSEA OF LIFESAVVY NINEMAXIMUSFLYING QUESTTIANCHI MONSTERHO HO KHANASSIMILATECELESTIAL POWERBERLIN TANGOTSARCONQUEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 58

PLACE

3 20

8 32.5

11 22

QUINELLA

3,8 297

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 96

3,11 66

8,11 119

FORECAST

3,8 707

TIERCE

3,8,11 3,750

TRIO

3,8,11 606

FIRST 4

3,6,8,11 17,338

QUARTET

3,8,11,6 266,598

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 30

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,10,11/3,8,11 19,077

9TH DOUBLE

1/3 153.5

1/8 58.5

SIX UP

1,4/1,2/3,9/5,11/1,10/3,8 2,421

4/2/9/11/1/3 513,404

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

11/1/3 2,112

11/1/8 681