Sha Tin · 2021-03-07
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON FORTUNE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with DECISIVE TWELVE second and FAMILY FOLKS third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DRAGON FORTUNE TT 1.09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 2.7 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 4 | 4.2 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | FAMILY FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 9 | 8.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP B R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | SMART WONGCHOY H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 11 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | KUNG FU TEA XB-/SR1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 60.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 73.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 33.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | ZACIAN C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 10 | 117.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SURE WINNER B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 52.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BULLISH UNICORN CP1/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 13.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 27.2% | 3.67 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | BULLISH UNICORN | 12.8% | 7.79 | 12 |
| 3 | 4 | DRAGON FORTUNE | 9.9% | 10.11 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | FAMILY FOLKS | 9.1% | 10.98 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 9.0% | 11.07 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | SMART WONGCHOY | 8.7% | 11.51 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP | 8.3% | 11.99 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING | 7.3% | 13.76 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SURE WINNER | 2.7% | 37.15 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | KUNG FU TEA | 2.0% | 50.07 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | ZACIAN | 1.9% | 51.60 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE | 1.0% | 103.25 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 27
PLACE
1 15.5
2 24.5
4 14
QUINELLA
1,4 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 46.5
1,4 30
2,4 44
FORECAST
4,1 126
TIERCE
4,1,2 567
TRIO
1,2,4 120
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 190
QUARTET
4,1,2,8 3,010
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 15.5
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 49.5
1/4 470.5