Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course C 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PING HAI BRAVO, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with DUKE WAI second and BALTIC SUCCESS third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.37

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	PING HAI BRAVO E/TT 0.56.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	8	123 lb	2.6	1/2
2	1	DUKE WAI B/H C L Chau · P O'Sullivan	C L Chau	P O'Sullivan	7	126 lb	2.6	1/2
3	8	BALTIC SUCCESS TT H N Wong · C S Shum	H N Wong	C S Shum	9	115 lb	11.0	1
4	6	GUNNISON M L Yeung · Y S Tsui	M L Yeung	Y S Tsui	1	119 lb	32.0	2
5	9	SMART LEADER B/TT K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	3	116 lb	23.0	3
6	3	VICTORIAM M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	4	122 lb	43.0	4-1/4
7	7	SUNNY BOY B/TT R Maia · W Y So	R Maia	W Y So	5	119 lb	14.0	4-1/2
8	2	SHINING GEM CP M Chadwick · P F Yiu	M Chadwick	P F Yiu	2	132 lb	26.0	5-1/2
9	4	HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	123 lb	6.1	7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick PING HAI BRAVO (36.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	PING HAI BRAVO	36.4%	2.74	1	2.6
2	1	DUKE WAI	23.7%	4.21	2	2.6
3	4	HIGHLAND FORTUNE	9.6%	10.44	9	6.1
4	3	VICTORIAM	8.8%	11.42	6	43.0
5	2	SHINING GEM	7.1%	14.18	8	26.0
6	9	SMART LEADER	6.5%	15.37	5	23.0
7	7	SUNNY BOY	4.3%	23.31	7	14.0
8	6	GUNNISON	2.4%	42.20	4	32.0
9	8	BALTIC SUCCESS	1.3%	78.79	3	11.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 26.5

PLACE

1 12

5 12

8 27.5

QUINELLA

1,5 33

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 17

1,8 48.5

5,8 51

FORECAST

5,1 66

TIERCE

5,1,8 316

TRIO

1,5,8 107

FIRST 4

1,5,6,8 259

QUARTET

5,1,8,6 2,276

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/1 18.5

3/5 126

3 PICK 1

A1 26.5

A2 —

A3 —

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