Sha Tin · 2021-03-07
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. LUCKY RUBY, ridden by N Callan and trained by K L Man, won by 2, with LITTLE THUNDER second and DR PROACTIVE third. The 3.4 favourite ONE HAPPY STAR finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY B/TT 1.08.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 11 | 39.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | LITTLE THUNDER B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 4 | 3.9 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | DR PROACTIVE M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 5 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 8 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | VITAL SPRING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | RED MAJESTY B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 1 | 41.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | STAR SUPERIOR K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 10 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SKY TREASURE P-/H R Maia · Y S Tsui | R Maia | Y S Tsui | 7 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPREME PATROL B/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 12 | 6.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | ONE HAPPY STAR Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 3.4 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING GRACE V/TT H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 3 | 132.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 2 | 9.3 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ONE HAPPY STAR | 25.3% | 3.95 | 10 |
| 2 | 10 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 14.9% | 6.70 | 12 |
| 3 | 1 | LITTLE THUNDER | 13.5% | 7.43 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | VITAL SPRING | 9.5% | 10.53 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | DR PROACTIVE | 7.8% | 12.90 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPREME PATROL | 7.7% | 12.94 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | SMART CHARADE | 6.9% | 14.47 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | STAR SUPERIOR | 4.4% | 22.82 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | RED MAJESTY | 4.2% | 23.95 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | SKY TREASURE | 3.4% | 29.49 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | LUCKY RUBY | 1.5% | 66.77 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | DASHING GRACE | 1.0% | 102.91 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 394.5
PLACE
1 15
5 27.5
7 91.5
QUINELLA
1,7 806
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 60.5
1,7 205.5
5,7 616
FORECAST
7,1 3,232
TIERCE
7,1,5 21,129
TRIO
1,5,7 2,625
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 7,060
QUARTET
7,1,5,3 206,779
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 25.5