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Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 1

Class 5 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. LUCKY RUBY, ridden by N Callan and trained by K L Man, won by 2, with LITTLE THUNDER second and DR PROACTIVE third. The 3.4 favourite ONE HAPPY STAR finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.08.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LUCKY RUBY B/TT 1.08.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · K L Man 11 39.0 2
2 1 LITTLE THUNDER B K Teetan · A T Millard 4 3.9 2
3 5 DR PROACTIVE M Chadwick · K H Ting 5 10.0 3-3/4
4 3 SMART CHARADE B/H/TT M F Poon · W Y So 8 15.0 4-3/4
5 8 VITAL SPRING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 11.0 5
6 9 RED MAJESTY B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 1 41.0 5
7 4 STAR SUPERIOR K H Chan · C W Chang 10 14.0 5-1/4
8 6 SKY TREASURE P-/H R Maia · Y S Tsui 7 26.0 5-1/2
9 11 SUPREME PATROL B/TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris 12 6.9 6-3/4
10 2 ONE HAPPY STAR Z Purton · C H Yip 6 3.4 7-1/2
11 12 DASHING GRACE V/TT H N Wong · T P Yung 3 132.0 8
12 10 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V C L Chau · L Ho 2 9.3 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY RUBY2. LITTLE THUNDER+2L3. DR PROACTIVE+3.75L4. SMART CHARADE+4.75L5. VITAL SPRING+5L6. RED MAJESTY+5L7. STAR SUPERIOR+5.25L8. SKY TREASURE+5.5L9. SUPREME PATROL+6.75L10. ONE HAPPY STAR+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ONE HAPPY STAR (25.3%) finished 10th — the winner LUCKY RUBY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ONE HAPPY STAR 25.3% 3.95 10
2 10 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 14.9% 6.70 12
3 1 LITTLE THUNDER 13.5% 7.43 2
4 8 VITAL SPRING 9.5% 10.53 5
5 5 DR PROACTIVE 7.8% 12.90 3
6 11 SUPREME PATROL 7.7% 12.94 9
7 3 SMART CHARADE 6.9% 14.47 4
8 4 STAR SUPERIOR 4.4% 22.82 7
9 9 RED MAJESTY 4.2% 23.95 6
10 6 SKY TREASURE 3.4% 29.49 8
11 7 LUCKY RUBY 1.5% 66.77 1
12 12 DASHING GRACE 1.0% 102.91 11
ONE HAPPY STARCHUNGHWA JINGSHENLITTLE THUNDERVITAL SPRINGDR PROACTIVESUPREME PATROLSMART CHARADESTAR SUPERIORRED MAJESTYSKY TREASURELUCKY RUBY — wonDASHING GRACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 394.5

PLACE

1 15

5 27.5

7 91.5

QUINELLA

1,7 806

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 60.5

1,7 205.5

5,7 616

FORECAST

7,1 3,232

TIERCE

7,1,5 21,129

TRIO

1,5,7 2,625

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 7,060

QUARTET

7,1,5,3 206,779

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 25.5