Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SO WE JOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with GOLDEN LINK second and PLIKCLONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite PLIKCLONE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP-/TT2 1.22.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 4.2 HD
2 1 GOLDEN LINK K H Chan · P F Yiu 6 20.0 HD
3 13 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall 12 4.0 N
4 3 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 9 13.0 1/2
5 8 OSCAR GLORY K Teetan · F C Lor 4 6.9 3/4
6 10 BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B B Shinn · Y S Tsui 2 19.0 2-1/4
7 4 TAKINGUFURTHER Led early H/V V Borges · K H Ting 1 16.0 2-1/4
8 5 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · C W Chang 7 13.0 3
9 7 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V-/B1 N Callan · K L Man 3 6.5 3-1/2
10 6 PHENOMENAL COMBO R Maia · C H Yip 8 22.0 3-1/2
11 9 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 55.0 4-3/4
12 12 GLADSOME RYDER Closed strongly TT1 M Chadwick · R Gibson 14 70.0 4-3/4
13 11 BRILLIANT CHINA CP-/B1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 13 134.0 5-3/4
14 14 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 10 24.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO WE JOY2. GOLDEN LINK+0.2L3. PLIKCLONE+0.05L4. SUPER RED DRAGON+0.5L5. OSCAR GLORY+0.75L6. BEST FOR YOU+2.25L7. TAKINGUFURTHER+2.25L8. GOLDEN FOUR+3L9. ULTIMATE GLORY+3.5L10. PHENOMENAL COMBO+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (17.6%) finished 5th — the winner SO WE JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 OSCAR GLORY 17.6% 5.68 5
2 13 PLIKCLONE 17.3% 5.79 3
3 2 SO WE JOY 11.0% 9.11 1
4 7 ULTIMATE GLORY 10.2% 9.81 9
5 14 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 8.9% 11.21 14
6 1 GOLDEN LINK 5.7% 17.46 2
7 4 TAKINGUFURTHER 5.5% 18.05 7
8 5 GOLDEN FOUR 5.3% 18.72 8
9 3 SUPER RED DRAGON 5.2% 19.32 4
10 6 PHENOMENAL COMBO 4.2% 24.01 10
11 9 RUN DES RUN 3.3% 30.24 11
12 12 GLADSOME RYDER 2.1% 48.30 12
13 10 BEST FOR YOU 1.9% 51.68 6
14 11 BRILLIANT CHINA 1.8% 56.08 13
OSCAR GLORYPLIKCLONESO WE JOY — wonULTIMATE GLORYCALIFORNIA LEGENDGOLDEN LINKTAKINGUFURTHERGOLDEN FOURSUPER RED DRAGONPHENOMENAL COMBORUN DES RUNGLADSOME RYDERBEST FOR YOUBRILLIANT CHINA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 42.5

PLACE

1 56.5

2 20

13 16.5

QUINELLA

1,2 503.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 179

1,13 136.5

2,13 44.5

FORECAST

2,1 775

TIERCE

2,1,13 3,764

TRIO

1,2,13 833

FIRST 4

1,2,3,13 1,227

QUARTET

2,1,13,3 23,856

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 21

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 156.5

4/2 104.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,9,13/1,2,4/1,2,13 1,360,681

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,9,13/1,2,4/Any Combination 2,510