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Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP-/TT2 1.22.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 4.2 HD
2 0 GOLDEN LINK K H Chan · P F Yiu 6 20.0 HD
3 0 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall 12 4.0 N
4 0 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 9 13.0 1/2
5 0 OSCAR GLORY K Teetan · F C Lor 4 6.9 3/4
6 0 BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B B Shinn · Y S Tsui 2 19.0 2-1/4
7 0 TAKINGUFURTHER Led early H/V V Borges · K H Ting 1 16.0 2-1/4
8 0 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · C W Chang 7 13.0 3
9 0 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V-/B1 N Callan · K L Man 3 6.5 3-1/2
10 0 PHENOMENAL COMBO R Maia · C H Yip 8 22.0 3-1/2
11 0 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 55.0 4-3/4
12 0 GLADSOME RYDER Closed strongly TT1 M Chadwick · R Gibson 14 70.0 4-3/4
13 0 BRILLIANT CHINA CP-/B1/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 13 134.0 5-3/4
14 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 10 24.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SO WE JOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with GOLDEN LINK second and PLIKCLONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite PLIKCLONE finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO WE JOY—2. GOLDEN LINK+0.2L3. PLIKCLONE+0.05L4. SUPER RED DRAGON+0.5L5. OSCAR GLORY+0.75L6. BEST FOR YOU+2.25L7. TAKINGUFURTHER+2.25L8. GOLDEN FOUR+3L9. ULTIMATE GLORY+3.5L10. PHENOMENAL COMBO+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (17.6%) finished 5th — the winner SO WE JOY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 OSCAR GLORY 17.6% 5.68 5
2 0 PLIKCLONE 17.3% 5.79 3
3 0 SO WE JOY 11.0% 9.11 1
4 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 10.2% 9.81 9
5 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 8.9% 11.21 14
6 0 GOLDEN LINK 5.7% 17.46 2
7 0 TAKINGUFURTHER 5.5% 18.05 7
8 0 GOLDEN FOUR 5.3% 18.72 8
9 0 SUPER RED DRAGON 5.2% 19.32 4
10 0 PHENOMENAL COMBO 4.2% 24.01 10
11 0 RUN DES RUN 3.3% 30.24 11
12 0 GLADSOME RYDER 2.1% 48.30 12
13 0 BEST FOR YOU 1.9% 51.68 6
14 0 BRILLIANT CHINA 1.8% 56.08 13
OSCAR GLORYPLIKCLONESO WE JOY — wonULTIMATE GLORYCALIFORNIA LEGENDGOLDEN LINKTAKINGUFURTHERGOLDEN FOURSUPER RED DRAGONPHENOMENAL COMBORUN DES RUNGLADSOME RYDERBEST FOR YOUBRILLIANT CHINA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 42.5

PLACE

1 56.5

2 20

13 16.5

QUINELLA

1,2 503.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 179

1,13 136.5

2,13 44.5

FORECAST

2,1 775

TIERCE

2,1,13 3,764

TRIO

1,2,13 833

FIRST 4

1,2,3,13 1,227

QUARTET

2,1,13,3 23,856

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A2 —

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 156.5

4/2 104.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,9,13/1,2,4/1,2,13 1,360,681

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,9,13/1,2,4/Any Combination 2,510