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Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CITY LEGEND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with GREAT HARVEST second and BLAZING PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite VICTORIOUS LEADER finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.23.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 1.23.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 12 8.1 3/4
2 9 GREAT HARVEST Closed strongly N Callan · K L Man 11 7.3 3/4
3 13 BLAZING PARTNERS B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 6 9.9 3/4
4 4 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 5 8.6 2
5 8 VIVA MAMA TT H T Mo · L Ho 2 28.0 3-1/4
6 2 GALAXY EMPEROR B/H/TT R Maia · A S Cruz 10 14.0 3-1/4
7 6 UNIVERSAL RECORD Led early CP M Chadwick · A T Millard 7 30.0 3-1/2
8 5 CRUCIATUS Closed strongly XB/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 3 39.0 4-3/4
9 3 WONDER EXPRESS CP/TT B Shinn · K H Ting 8 17.0 5
10 7 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 13 4.7 5
11 11 THE FULL BLOOM V M F Poon · D J Hall 1 4.8 5-1/4
12 12 LITTLE GENERAL CP-/B2/TT V Borges · C S Shum 14 28.0 6
13 10 FOR FUN'S SAKE C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 28.0 6-1/2
14 14 BRAVERY AND POWER TT M L Yeung · W Y So 4 34.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CITY LEGEND2. GREAT HARVEST+0.75L3. BLAZING PARTNERS+0.75L4. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2L5. VIVA MAMA+3.25L6. GALAXY EMPEROR+3.25L7. UNIVERSAL RECORD+3.5L8. CRUCIATUS+4.75L9. WONDER EXPRESS+5L10. VICTORIOUS LEADER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick VIVA MAMA (17.3%) finished 5th — the winner CITY LEGEND was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 VIVA MAMA 17.3% 5.78 5
2 7 VICTORIOUS LEADER 16.1% 6.22 10
3 4 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 12.3% 8.10 4
4 2 GALAXY EMPEROR 11.8% 8.48 6
5 9 GREAT HARVEST 7.2% 13.81 2
6 3 WONDER EXPRESS 7.0% 14.26 9
7 1 CITY LEGEND 6.2% 16.04 1
8 13 BLAZING PARTNERS 5.6% 17.98 3
9 11 THE FULL BLOOM 3.7% 26.77 11
10 12 LITTLE GENERAL 3.7% 26.89 12
11 10 FOR FUN'S SAKE 2.8% 35.49 13
12 5 CRUCIATUS 2.4% 41.14 8
13 14 BRAVERY AND POWER 2.3% 44.35 14
14 6 UNIVERSAL RECORD 1.5% 67.52 7
VIVA MAMAVICTORIOUS LEADERWINWIN THIRTYTHREEGALAXY EMPERORGREAT HARVESTWONDER EXPRESSCITY LEGEND — wonBLAZING PARTNERSTHE FULL BLOOMLITTLE GENERALFOR FUN'S SAKECRUCIATUSBRAVERY AND POWERUNIVERSAL RECORD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 81.5

PLACE

1 21

9 29.5

13 33.5

QUINELLA

1,9 296.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 108.5

1,13 118

9,13 122

FORECAST

1,9 825

TIERCE

1,9,13 4,335

TRIO

1,9,13 897

FIRST 4

1,4,9,13 1,434

QUARTET

1,9,13,4 33,994

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,8/1,9,13 15,109

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

5/1 261

5/9 56.5