Sha Tin · 2021-03-07
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FLYING BONUS, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with LUCKY FUN second and MAN STAR third. The 1.9 favourite LUCKY FUN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FLYING BONUS P 1.08.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY FUN H Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 1.9 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | MAN STAR V K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 8 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER ALLIANCES P V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | MAGIC LEGEND CP-/B2 C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 12 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | RESOLUTE B M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 7 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | CLASSIC POSH H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 5 | 86.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 9.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | SMART FOLKS XB-/B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 148.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | MIG ENERGY XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 41.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | HELENA BABY XB/P1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 4 | 57.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | SUNSET WATCH P R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 11 | 30.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY FUN | 50.5% | 1.98 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | MAN STAR | 8.4% | 11.90 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR | 7.4% | 13.54 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 6.9% | 14.56 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | RESOLUTE | 6.1% | 16.49 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | SUNSET WATCH | 5.5% | 18.16 | 12 |
| 7 | 2 | MIG ENERGY | 4.4% | 22.70 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | CLASSIC POSH | 3.9% | 25.90 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | FLYING BONUS | 3.3% | 30.02 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | HELENA BABY | 1.5% | 68.19 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | MAGIC LEGEND | 1.4% | 69.89 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | SMART FOLKS | 0.7% | 136.54 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 66.5
PLACE
4 19
5 12.5
11 20.5
QUINELLA
5,11 76.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 24.5
4,11 61.5
5,11 32.5
FORECAST
11,5 219
TIERCE
11,5,4 1,021
TRIO
4,5,11 126
FIRST 4
4,5,11,12 419
QUARTET
11,5,4,12 13,246
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 24.5
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
9/5 25.5
9/11 838