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Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 2

Class 4 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. MOERAKI, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by 1, with MAGIC SUPREME second and FLYING ON THE TURF third. The 4.3 favourite FLYING ON THE TURF finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MOERAKI B 1.08.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang 2 5.4 1
2 8 MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT A Hamelin · K L Man 1 6.5 1
3 1 FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB K Teetan · K H Ting 3 4.3 3-1/2
4 12 THE BEST HERO V H W Lai · L Ho 12 40.0 5
5 11 DOLLAR REWARD P2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.7 5
6 9 DEMONS ROCK B H T Mo · D J Hall 5 24.0 6-1/2
7 2 THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 5.5 7
8 5 MIGHTY POWER B V Borges · D A Hayes 10 6.7 8-1/4
9 10 GOLDEN BOLT XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 48.0 13-1/2
10 6 ENJOY MY LIFE TT M F Poon · C H Yip 9 78.0 18-3/4
11 4 STRIKING MR C B/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 8 22.0 19-1/4
12 7 MULTIPOWER TT N Callan · A S Cruz 4 41.0 29-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MOERAKI2. MAGIC SUPREME+1L3. FLYING ON THE TURF+3.5L4. THE BEST HERO+5L5. DOLLAR REWARD+5L6. DEMONS ROCK+6.5L7. THOU SHALL SING+7L8. MIGHTY POWER+8.25L9. GOLDEN BOLT+13.5L10. ENJOY MY LIFE+18.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MOERAKI (19.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MOERAKI 19.1% 5.23 1
2 11 DOLLAR REWARD 15.8% 6.32 5
3 1 FLYING ON THE TURF 12.6% 7.96 3
4 8 MAGIC SUPREME 11.8% 8.48 2
5 4 STRIKING MR C 9.3% 10.77 11
6 9 DEMONS ROCK 8.4% 11.90 6
7 5 MIGHTY POWER 8.1% 12.29 8
8 2 THOU SHALL SING 7.3% 13.61 7
9 10 GOLDEN BOLT 2.3% 42.68 9
10 7 MULTIPOWER 2.3% 43.24 12
11 6 ENJOY MY LIFE 1.6% 64.19 10
12 12 THE BEST HERO 1.3% 74.51 4
MOERAKI — wonDOLLAR REWARDFLYING ON THE TURFMAGIC SUPREMESTRIKING MR CDEMONS ROCKMIGHTY POWERTHOU SHALL SINGGOLDEN BOLTMULTIPOWERENJOY MY LIFETHE BEST HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 54.5

PLACE

1 15

3 18

8 24

QUINELLA

3,8 198.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 55

1,8 58.5

3,8 64.5

FORECAST

3,8 307

TIERCE

3,8,1 1,337

TRIO

1,3,8 271

FIRST 4

1,3,8,12 1,883

QUARTET

3,8,1,12 32,540

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/3 2,765

7/8 571

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 30

A3