Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-03-07

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-07 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FLAGSHIP GLORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with AUTHENTIC CHAMP second and BEAUTY DAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.35.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FLAGSHIP GLORY Closed strongly H1 1.35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 8 2.3 1/2
2 10 AUTHENTIC CHAMP Closed strongly B/H C Y Ho · K H Ting 3 4.6 1/2
3 11 BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H M F Poon · T P Yung 5 7.7 3/4
4 8 RIGHT CHOICE B B Shinn · F C Lor 10 13.0 1
5 12 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly V Borges · J Size 13 15.0 2-1/2
6 2 LEWIS B/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 10.0 2-1/2
7 5 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B- N Callan · C W Chang 12 18.0 3-3/4
8 4 SPARKY TRAIL Closed strongly K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 11 28.0 4-1/4
9 9 AI ONE XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 96.0 5
10 3 MR ALDAN B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 49.0 7-1/4
11 7 PRECISE EXPRESS A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 17.0 7-1/2
12 6 GREAT TREASURE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 6 34.0 8-1/4
13 13 MING WARRIOR TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 312.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAGSHIP GLORY2. AUTHENTIC CHAMP+0.5L3. BEAUTY DAY+0.75L4. RIGHT CHOICE+1L5. LEADING FORTUNE+2.5L6. LEWIS+2.5L7. KYRUS UNICORN+3.75L8. SPARKY TRAIL+4.25L9. AI ONE+5L10. MR ALDAN+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick AUTHENTIC CHAMP (33.6%) finished 2nd — the winner FLAGSHIP GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 AUTHENTIC CHAMP 33.6% 2.97 2
2 1 FLAGSHIP GLORY 22.7% 4.41 1
3 2 LEWIS 9.3% 10.71 6
4 11 BEAUTY DAY 7.8% 12.85 3
5 12 LEADING FORTUNE 6.5% 15.44 5
6 7 PRECISE EXPRESS 5.5% 18.08 11
7 8 RIGHT CHOICE 4.3% 23.35 4
8 5 KYRUS UNICORN 3.7% 27.02 7
9 6 GREAT TREASURE 2.1% 48.50 12
10 3 MR ALDAN 1.9% 51.36 10
11 4 SPARKY TRAIL 1.1% 90.91 8
12 9 AI ONE 0.8% 122.57 9
13 13 MING WARRIOR 0.7% 150.59 13
AUTHENTIC CHAMPFLAGSHIP GLORY — wonLEWISBEAUTY DAYLEADING FORTUNEPRECISE EXPRESSRIGHT CHOICEKYRUS UNICORNGREAT TREASUREMR ALDANSPARKY TRAILAI ONEMING WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 23.5

PLACE

1 14

10 16.5

11 22.5

QUINELLA

1,10 56.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 23

1,11 46

10,11 54.5

FORECAST

1,10 64

TIERCE

1,10,11 566

TRIO

1,10,11 157

FIRST 4

1,8,10,11 404

QUARTET

1,10,11,8 4,463

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A2

A3

8TH DOUBLE

11/1 264

11/10 57