沙田 · 2021-03-07
第 5場
2021-03-07沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、F C Lor訓練的DRAGON FORTUNE勝出，贏出SH。DECISIVE TWELVE獲得亞軍；FAMILY FOLKS獲得季軍。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DRAGON FORTUNE TT 1.09.90 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 2.7 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 4 | 4.2 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | FAMILY FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 9 | 8.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP B R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | SMART WONGCHOY H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 11 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | KUNG FU TEA XB-/SR1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 60.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 73.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 33.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | ZACIAN C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 10 | 117.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SURE WINNER B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 52.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BULLISH UNICORN CP1/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 13.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 27.2% | 3.67 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | BULLISH UNICORN | 12.8% | 7.79 | 12 |
| 3 | 4 | DRAGON FORTUNE | 9.9% | 10.11 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | FAMILY FOLKS | 9.1% | 10.98 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 9.0% | 11.07 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | SMART WONGCHOY | 8.7% | 11.51 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP | 8.3% | 11.99 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING | 7.3% | 13.76 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SURE WINNER | 2.7% | 37.15 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | KUNG FU TEA | 2.0% | 50.07 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | ZACIAN | 1.9% | 51.60 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE | 1.0% | 103.25 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 27
PLACE
1 15.5
2 24.5
4 14
QUINELLA
1,4 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 46.5
1,4 30
2,4 44
FORECAST
4,1 126
TIERCE
4,1,2 567
TRIO
1,2,4 120
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 190
QUARTET
4,1,2,8 3,010
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 15.5
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 49.5
1/4 470.5