跑馬地 · 2021-03-24
第 5場
2021-03-24跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C H Yip訓練的FIRE BALL勝出，贏出N。NOBLE DESIRE獲得亞軍；EXUBERANT獲得季軍。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FIRE BALL TT 1.09.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 6 | 2.7 | N |
| 2 | 12 | NOBLE DESIRE V-/XB/SR1 M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.2 | N |
| 3 | 9 | EXUBERANT B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 9 | 164.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | SHADOW RUNNER B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 11 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | SUPERB DADDY Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 4 | 4.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CHIKORITA XB A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 2 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | KING'S TROOPER B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 7 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | NOIR RIDER V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 8 | 82.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | WHISKEY NEAT H/V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 12 | 9.9 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 10 | 11.0 | 14-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FIRE BALL | 28.5% | 3.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPERB DADDY | 15.2% | 6.58 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | NOBLE DESIRE | 11.3% | 8.86 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 9.6% | 10.39 | 12 |
| 5 | 4 | SHINING ON | 7.8% | 12.79 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | WHISKEY NEAT | 7.5% | 13.32 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | SHADOW RUNNER | 6.9% | 14.43 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD | 5.6% | 18.00 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | CHIKORITA | 3.9% | 25.69 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | KING'S TROOPER | 2.4% | 40.98 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | NOIR RIDER | 0.7% | 138.36 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | EXUBERANT | 0.5% | 187.78 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 27
PLACE
9 251.5
11 15.5
12 20.5
QUINELLA
11,12 93.5
QUINELLA PLACE
9,11 834
9,12 1,659.5
11,12 38.5
FORECAST
11,12 145
TIERCE
11,12,9 9,318
TRIO
9,11,12 6,316
FIRST 4
6,9,11,12 11,917
QUARTET
11,12,9,6 148,321
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/9,11,12 212,887
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/11 376
4/12 327