沙田 · 2021-06-06
第 4場
2021-06-06沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由C L Chau策騎、T P Yung訓練的SURE WIN WIN勝出，贏出1-1/4。DRAGON COMMANDER獲得亞軍；REGENCY GEM獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門DRAGON COMMANDER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SURE WIN WIN 後段發力 V 1.39.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 14 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | REGENCY GEM 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM 早段領放 V M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | RUN DES RUN 後段發力 TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 12 | 44.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | SHINEALOT 後段發力 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | FIGURES TWO 後段發力 T Piccone · A T Millard | T Piccone | A T Millard | 13 | 85.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 10 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 9 | 113.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | PROUD SKY 後段發力 V H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 11 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | AEROSONIC P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 14 | KEEP WINNING P2/TT- M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 14.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | SPLENDID TIMING P-/B2 K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 6 | 33.0 | 21-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | WICKER B H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 5 | 55.0 | 38-3/4 |
| — | 0 | GO BALLISTIC B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SHINEALOT | 21.3% | 4.69 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | AEROSONIC | 16.7% | 5.98 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | REGENCY GEM | 16.4% | 6.10 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 10.7% | 9.37 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | SURE WIN WIN | 7.8% | 12.80 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | RUN DES RUN | 5.0% | 20.17 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 4.5% | 22.13 | 8 |
| 8 | 13 | WICKER | 4.1% | 24.48 | 14 |
| 9 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM | 3.2% | 31.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | SPLENDID TIMING | 3.1% | 32.50 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | PROUD SKY | 2.6% | 38.46 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | KEEP WINNING | 1.9% | 52.36 | 12 |
| 13 | 10 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS | 1.7% | 59.54 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | FIGURES TWO | 1.1% | 94.46 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 73
PLACE
1 16
3 20
6 24.5
QUINELLA
1,6 129.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 44.5
1,6 54
3,6 68.5
FORECAST
6,1 444
TIERCE
6,1,3 1,426
TRIO
1,3,6 193
FIRST 4
1,3,6,11 322
QUARTET
6,1,3,11 8,764
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,5/1,3,6 2,069
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 22.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/1 29.5
5/6 441