沙田 · 2021-06-06
第 10場
2021-06-06沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、C Fownes訓練的THE ROCK勝出，贏出2。HIGHLAND FORTUNE獲得亞軍；FLAGSHIP GLORY獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.8倍大熱門TOURBILLON DIAMOND跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | THE ROCK 一路領先 P- 1.33.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 14 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 3 | 83.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | FLAGSHIP GLORY 後段發力 TT1 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 7.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 2.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | LOOKING GREAT 後段發力 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 4.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SAVAQUIN 後段發力 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 9 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | LAKESHORE EAGLE 後段發力 SR-/XB/V1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPER OASIS B-/H-/XB- B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 7 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | SMILING TIME M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 137.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR 後段發力 CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 10 | 54.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 6 | 23.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 13 | BIGWOOD B-/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 11 | 18.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | CIRCUIT THREE B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 13 | 31.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 7 | CHARITY GO SR A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 12 | 14.0 | 10-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LOOKING GREAT | 40.8% | 2.45 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 25.5% | 3.92 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | FLAGSHIP GLORY | 7.6% | 13.14 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | THE ROCK | 4.9% | 20.33 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | SAVAQUIN | 4.5% | 22.12 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | CHARITY GO | 4.0% | 24.78 | 14 |
| 7 | 8 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 3.0% | 33.67 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | CIRCUIT THREE | 2.2% | 44.98 | 13 |
| 9 | 13 | BIGWOOD | 1.8% | 55.30 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 1.8% | 56.36 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 1.7% | 58.81 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | SUPER OASIS | 1.0% | 95.30 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 0.7% | 152.13 | 2 |
| 14 | 14 | SMILING TIME | 0.4% | 278.16 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 121
PLACE
4 38.5
10 23.5
11 161.5
QUINELLA
4,11 5,525
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 201
4,11 1,192
10,11 794
FORECAST
4,11 11,948
TIERCE
4,11,10 104,982
TRIO
4,10,11 11,460
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 7,020
QUARTET
4,11,10,1 383,489
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 29
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,13/4,10,11 3,219,348
9TH DOUBLE
7/4 3,650
7/11 3,140.5
SIX UP
4,11/10,13/5,10/1,10/7,13/4,11 203,753
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
10/7/4 46,358
10/7/11 35,351