沙田 · 2021-06-20
第 3場
2021-06-20沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的LUCKY QUALITY勝出，贏出3/4。FLYING DRAGON獲得亞軍；SPICY SO GOOD獲得季軍。頭馬以3.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LUCKY QUALITY 0.55.91 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | FLYING DRAGON N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 4 | 7.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | SPICY SO GOOD V-/B2/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 13 | 23.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | SEA ELITE H/SR1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 11 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | LORIZ A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 5 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | NEXTMODEL TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 12 | 5.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | VIVA CHEF B M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 2 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | FOXHUNTER WAY H1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 83.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | PEGASUS GLORY B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | FARM BUMPER B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 83.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | INGENIOUS FELLOW B1/TT1 T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 7 | 85.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | MILLENNIUM FALCON CP/H K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | SHADOW RUNNER B/TT1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 19.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LUCKY QUALITY | 18.3% | 5.47 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | SEA ELITE | 12.9% | 7.77 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | NEXTMODEL | 10.2% | 9.80 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 9.7% | 10.34 | 13 |
| 5 | 1 | PEGASUS GLORY | 7.5% | 13.32 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 7.5% | 13.39 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | LORIZ | 7.3% | 13.79 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING DRAGON | 5.9% | 16.86 | 2 |
| 9 | 14 | VIVA CHEF | 4.5% | 22.30 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | SHADOW RUNNER | 4.0% | 24.89 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | INGENIOUS FELLOW | 3.9% | 25.62 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | FARM BUMPER | 3.1% | 32.13 | 11 |
| 13 | 7 | SPICY SO GOOD | 2.9% | 34.44 | 3 |
| 14 | 3 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 2.4% | 41.48 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 34.5
PLACE
2 16
7 75.5
8 25.5
QUINELLA
2,8 156
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 175
2,8 62
7,8 354.5
FORECAST
2,8 356
TIERCE
2,8,7 4,696
TRIO
2,7,8 1,143
FIRST 4
2,7,8,12 2,143
QUARTET
2,8,7,12 36,702
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
5/2 252.5
5/8 79.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5