沙田 · 2021-06-20
第 4場
2021-06-20沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由R Maia策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的MARADO勝出，贏出1/2。ALL BEAUTY獲得亞軍；ZACIAN獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門GLUCK RACER跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MARADO 1.09.13 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） R Maia · P O'Sullivan | R Maia | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 20.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | ALL BEAUTY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 9.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | ZACIAN B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 9.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | GLUCK RACER B1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 12 | 3.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | MOST WELCOME BO A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 13 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | HAPPY DAILY CP1 K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 9.7 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | DRAGON BABY TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 6.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | THIS IS CHARISMA H-/B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 41.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | FLYING PHOTOS H H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 72.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | WHO LOVES THE ACE TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 14 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | MAN UP XB1/TT1 C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 7 | 35.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | VICTORY MORE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 80.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 14 | IRON KING H-/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 10 | 9.1 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | THE JOLLY XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 14.0 | 8 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ALL BEAUTY | 26.3% | 3.81 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | GLUCK RACER | 17.4% | 5.75 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | DRAGON BABY | 12.8% | 7.84 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | THE JOLLY | 7.9% | 12.62 | 14 |
| 5 | 11 | ZACIAN | 5.6% | 17.73 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | MAN UP | 5.4% | 18.36 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 5.4% | 18.60 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | MARADO | 3.7% | 26.82 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 3.6% | 27.89 | 10 |
| 10 | 14 | IRON KING | 3.4% | 29.61 | 13 |
| 11 | 5 | HAPPY DAILY | 3.1% | 32.43 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | MOST WELCOME | 2.8% | 35.76 | 5 |
| 13 | 13 | FLYING PHOTOS | 1.5% | 67.12 | 9 |
| 14 | 10 | VICTORY MORE | 1.1% | 87.20 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 206.5
PLACE
4 28.5
7 50.5
11 30.5
QUINELLA
4,7 901
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 261
4,11 128.5
7,11 188
FORECAST
7,4 1,768
TIERCE
7,4,11 13,400
TRIO
4,7,11 1,453
FIRST 4
3,4,7,11 930
QUARTET
7,4,11,3 37,789
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,8/4,7,11 117,734
3 PICK 1
A3 22
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/4 50
2/7 738