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Sha Tin · 2021-06-20

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MARADO, ridden by R Maia and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with ALL BEAUTY second and ZACIAN third. The 3.3 favourite GLUCK RACER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MARADO 1.09.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · P O'Sullivan 4 20.0 1/2
2 4 ALL BEAUTY Z Purton · F C Lor 5 9.1 1/2
3 11 ZACIAN B K Teetan · A T Millard 8 9.2 1-3/4
4 3 GLUCK RACER B1 A Badel · K L Man 12 3.3 2-1/4
5 2 MOST WELCOME BO A Hamelin · D A Hayes 13 12.0 3-1/2
6 5 HAPPY DAILY CP1 K C Leung · L Ho 3 9.7 4
7 1 DRAGON BABY TT J Moreira · J Size 2 6.1 4-1/4
8 12 THIS IS CHARISMA H-/B M F Poon · D J Hall 1 41.0 4-1/2
9 13 FLYING PHOTOS H H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 72.0 4-3/4
10 9 WHO LOVES THE ACE TT B Shinn · C Fownes 14 22.0 5
11 6 MAN UP XB1/TT1 C Schofield · R Gibson 7 35.0 6-1/4
12 10 VICTORY MORE H C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 80.0 7
13 14 IRON KING H-/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 9.1 7-1/2
14 8 THE JOLLY XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 14.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MARADO2. ALL BEAUTY+0.5L3. ZACIAN+1.75L4. GLUCK RACER+2.25L5. MOST WELCOME+3.5L6. HAPPY DAILY+4L7. DRAGON BABY+4.25L8. THIS IS CHARISMA+4.5L9. FLYING PHOTOS+4.75L10. WHO LOVES THE ACE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ALL BEAUTY (26.3%) finished 2nd — the winner MARADO was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ALL BEAUTY 26.3% 3.81 2
2 3 GLUCK RACER 17.4% 5.75 4
3 1 DRAGON BABY 12.8% 7.84 7
4 8 THE JOLLY 7.9% 12.62 14
5 11 ZACIAN 5.6% 17.73 3
6 6 MAN UP 5.4% 18.36 11
7 12 THIS IS CHARISMA 5.4% 18.60 8
8 7 MARADO 3.7% 26.82 1
9 9 WHO LOVES THE ACE 3.6% 27.89 10
10 14 IRON KING 3.4% 29.61 13
11 5 HAPPY DAILY 3.1% 32.43 6
12 2 MOST WELCOME 2.8% 35.76 5
13 13 FLYING PHOTOS 1.5% 67.12 9
14 10 VICTORY MORE 1.1% 87.20 12
ALL BEAUTYGLUCK RACERDRAGON BABYTHE JOLLYZACIANMAN UPTHIS IS CHARISMAMARADO — wonWHO LOVES THE ACEIRON KINGHAPPY DAILYMOST WELCOMEFLYING PHOTOSVICTORY MORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 206.5

PLACE

4 28.5

7 50.5

11 30.5

QUINELLA

4,7 901

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 261

4,11 128.5

7,11 188

FORECAST

7,4 1,768

TIERCE

7,4,11 13,400

TRIO

4,7,11 1,453

FIRST 4

3,4,7,11 930

QUARTET

7,4,11,3 37,789

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,8/4,7,11 117,734

3 PICK 1

A3 22

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

2/4 50

2/7 738