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Sha Tin · 2021-06-20

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HINCHINLOVE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with LUCKY EXPRESS second and E STAR third. The winner led throughout. The 4.6 favourite LUCKY EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.20.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HINCHINLOVE Wire to wire B/TT 1.20.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · T P Yung 14 7.5 SH
2 2 LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 6 4.6 SH
3 8 E STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · K L Man 2 6.7 N
4 9 MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly B-/CP2 C Y Ho · D A Hayes 13 5.6 1
5 7 CONGRATULATION Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 31.0 2
6 14 WINNING METHOD TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 7.4 2-1/4
7 6 SUPER OASIS A Hamelin · K W Lui 7 27.0 2-1/4
8 1 BEAUTY SMILE B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 9 7.9 3-1/4
9 3 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting 5 28.0 3-3/4
10 13 THE CROWN Closed strongly A Badel · C Fownes 12 9.4 5-1/2
11 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 1 45.0 5-1/2
12 11 LOBO'S LEGEND M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 3 73.0 5-3/4
13 10 GREEN LASER T Piccone · D E Ferraris 8 106.0 6-3/4
14 12 SUNNY BOY B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 51.0 7-1/2
0 SEA OF LIFE K Teetan · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HINCHINLOVE2. LUCKY EXPRESS+0.1L3. E STAR+0.05L4. MASTER MONTARO+1L5. CONGRATULATION+2L6. WINNING METHOD+2.25L7. SUPER OASIS+2.25L8. BEAUTY SMILE+3.25L9. ASSIMILATE+3.75L10. THE CROWN+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LUCKY EXPRESS (21.3%) finished 2nd — the winner HINCHINLOVE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LUCKY EXPRESS 21.3% 4.70 2
2 1 BEAUTY SMILE 20.7% 4.84 8
3 9 MASTER MONTARO 13.1% 7.60 4
4 5 HINCHINLOVE 9.1% 11.02 1
5 8 E STAR 5.9% 16.81 3
6 13 THE CROWN 5.8% 17.38 10
7 14 WINNING METHOD 4.8% 20.72 6
8 12 SUNNY BOY 4.8% 21.03 14
9 4 AMAZING ONE PLUS 3.4% 29.18 11
10 7 CONGRATULATION 3.2% 30.81 5
11 6 SUPER OASIS 3.2% 31.20 7
12 11 LOBO'S LEGEND 2.0% 48.99 12
13 3 ASSIMILATE 1.4% 69.83 9
14 10 GREEN LASER 1.2% 81.99 13
LUCKY EXPRESSBEAUTY SMILEMASTER MONTAROHINCHINLOVE — wonE STARTHE CROWNWINNING METHODSUNNY BOYAMAZING ONE PLUSCONGRATULATIONSUPER OASISLOBO'S LEGENDASSIMILATEGREEN LASER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 75.5

PLACE

2 18.5

5 27.5

8 19.5

QUINELLA

2,5 208

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 78.5

2,8 55.5

5,8 68

FORECAST

5,2 517

TIERCE

5,2,8 1,829

TRIO

2,5,8 216

FIRST 4

2,5,8,9 278

QUARTET

5,2,8,9 8,549

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 24.5

A1

A2

8TH DOUBLE

2/2 10.5

2/5 163