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Sha Tin · 2021-06-20

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB 1.21.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 11 6.2 N
2 0 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly T Piccone · P F Yiu 6 12.0 N
3 0 SUPER WINNER TT J Moreira · C H Yip 2 5.5 1/2
4 0 SUPER TEN CP/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 13 5.9 1/2
5 0 WAR WEAPON Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 4.0 2-1/2
6 0 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly N Callan · D A Hayes 3 11.0 2-3/4
7 0 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 8 140.0 2-3/4
8 0 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · K W Lui 9 12.0 3-1/4
9 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE V M F Poon · F C Lor 4 18.0 4
10 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M Chadwick · K L Man 14 22.0 4
11 0 APACHE PASS C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 1 100.0 4-1/4
12 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 56.0 4-3/4
13 0 BABY Led early B A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 157.0 6
14 0 HEZA BEAUTY E C Schofield · J Size 5 15.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MALDIVES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with GOLDEN LINK second and SUPER WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite WAR WEAPON finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MALDIVES—2. GOLDEN LINK+0.05L3. SUPER WINNER+0.5L4. SUPER TEN+0.5L5. WAR WEAPON+2.5L6. LIFELINE VISION+2.75L7. PARTY EVERYDAY+2.75L8. MEANINGFUL STAR+3.25L9. CHEVALIER PRINCE+4L10. COMPASSION SPIRIT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER WINNER (41.5%) finished 3rd — the winner MALDIVES was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPER WINNER 41.5% 2.41 3
2 0 SUPER TEN 17.2% 5.81 4
3 0 WAR WEAPON 9.6% 10.37 5
4 0 MALDIVES 8.9% 11.22 1
5 0 GOLDEN LINK 4.0% 24.90 2
6 0 HEZA BEAUTY 3.9% 25.50 14
7 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE 2.7% 36.82 9
8 0 LIFELINE VISION 2.7% 37.65 6
9 0 MEANINGFUL STAR 2.4% 42.31 8
10 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.3% 43.97 10
11 0 PARTY EVERYDAY 2.1% 48.46 7
12 0 BABY 1.0% 96.14 13
13 0 APACHE PASS 0.9% 116.38 11
14 0 GREAT TREASURE 0.8% 125.81 12
SUPER WINNERSUPER TENWAR WEAPONMALDIVES — wonGOLDEN LINKHEZA BEAUTYCHEVALIER PRINCELIFELINE VISIONMEANINGFUL STARCOMPASSION SPIRITPARTY EVERYDAYBABYAPACHE PASSGREAT TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 62.5

PLACE

4 20.5

8 19

11 34.5

QUINELLA

8,11 361.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 56.5

4,11 108

8,11 127.5

FORECAST

8,11 882

TIERCE

8,11,4 3,686

TRIO

4,8,11 564

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 693

QUARTET

8,11,4,7 19,310

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 24

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/4,8,11 19,736

9TH DOUBLE

5/8 547

5/11 278

SIX UP

1/7/5/2/5/8 188,141

1,8/3,7/2,5/2,4/2,5/8,11 3,536

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

2/5/8 1,368

2/5/11 506