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Sha Tin · 2021-06-20

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MALDIVES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with GOLDEN LINK second and SUPER WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite WAR WEAPON finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB 1.21.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 11 6.2 N
2 11 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly T Piccone · P F Yiu 6 12.0 N
3 4 SUPER WINNER TT J Moreira · C H Yip 2 5.5 1/2
4 7 SUPER TEN CP/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 13 5.9 1/2
5 5 WAR WEAPON Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 4.0 2-1/2
6 6 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly N Callan · D A Hayes 3 11.0 2-3/4
7 14 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 8 140.0 2-3/4
8 13 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · K W Lui 9 12.0 3-1/4
9 9 CHEVALIER PRINCE V M F Poon · F C Lor 4 18.0 4
10 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M Chadwick · K L Man 14 22.0 4
11 2 APACHE PASS C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 1 100.0 4-1/4
12 12 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 56.0 4-3/4
13 3 BABY Led early B A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 157.0 6
14 1 HEZA BEAUTY E C Schofield · J Size 5 15.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MALDIVES2. GOLDEN LINK+0.05L3. SUPER WINNER+0.5L4. SUPER TEN+0.5L5. WAR WEAPON+2.5L6. LIFELINE VISION+2.75L7. PARTY EVERYDAY+2.75L8. MEANINGFUL STAR+3.25L9. CHEVALIER PRINCE+4L10. COMPASSION SPIRIT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER WINNER (41.5%) finished 3rd — the winner MALDIVES was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUPER WINNER 41.5% 2.41 3
2 7 SUPER TEN 17.2% 5.81 4
3 5 WAR WEAPON 9.6% 10.37 5
4 8 MALDIVES 8.9% 11.22 1
5 11 GOLDEN LINK 4.0% 24.90 2
6 1 HEZA BEAUTY 3.9% 25.50 14
7 9 CHEVALIER PRINCE 2.7% 36.82 9
8 6 LIFELINE VISION 2.7% 37.65 6
9 13 MEANINGFUL STAR 2.4% 42.31 8
10 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.3% 43.97 10
11 14 PARTY EVERYDAY 2.1% 48.46 7
12 3 BABY 1.0% 96.14 13
13 2 APACHE PASS 0.9% 116.38 11
14 12 GREAT TREASURE 0.8% 125.81 12
SUPER WINNERSUPER TENWAR WEAPONMALDIVES — wonGOLDEN LINKHEZA BEAUTYCHEVALIER PRINCELIFELINE VISIONMEANINGFUL STARCOMPASSION SPIRITPARTY EVERYDAYBABYAPACHE PASSGREAT TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 62.5

PLACE

4 20.5

8 19

11 34.5

QUINELLA

8,11 361.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 56.5

4,11 108

8,11 127.5

FORECAST

8,11 882

TIERCE

8,11,4 3,686

TRIO

4,8,11 564

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 693

QUARTET

8,11,4,7 19,310

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 24

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/4,8,11 19,736

9TH DOUBLE

5/8 547

5/11 278

SIX UP

1/7/5/2/5/8 188,141

1,8/3,7/2,5/2,4/2,5/8,11 3,536

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

2/5/8 1,368

2/5/11 506