Sha Tin · 2021-06-20
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOY MASTER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with JIMMU second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite JIANGXI STAMINA finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly V/TT 1.34.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 7 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | JIMMU Closed strongly SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 11 | 8.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 6 | 5.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 2.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS WIN Closed strongly V-/B2 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 13 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | CHEEKY PRAWN B/E B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 5 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 14 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | RUN RUN GOOD B A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 15.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | WONDER EXPRESS B/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 6.9 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | SMILING FACE B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 31.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | HAPPY WINNER H/P H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 12 | 135.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | CRUCIATUS B-/TT H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 3 | 38.0 | 22 |
| 13 | 6 | MAGIC BONUS Led early M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 8 | 100.0 | 24 |
| — | 7 | ANONYMA N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 27.0% | 3.70 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY MISSILE | 17.9% | 5.58 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | WONDER EXPRESS | 16.0% | 6.24 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | JIMMU | 9.0% | 11.06 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | SMILING FACE | 8.1% | 12.38 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | JOY MASTER | 5.2% | 19.22 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | CHEEKY PRAWN | 5.1% | 19.61 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | RUN RUN GOOD | 4.1% | 24.11 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 3.1% | 32.55 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | LIGHT MY DAY | 1.5% | 65.91 | 7 |
| 11 | 13 | CRUCIATUS | 1.0% | 97.33 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | MAGIC BONUS | 0.9% | 110.31 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | HAPPY WINNER | 0.9% | 110.34 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 125.5
PLACE
5 18
8 22
11 32
QUINELLA
8,11 521
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 66
5,11 113.5
8,11 141.5
FORECAST
11,8 1,027
TIERCE
11,8,5 5,031
TRIO
5,8,11 806
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 308
QUARTET
11,8,5,1 11,155
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —