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Sha Tin · 2021-06-20

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 JOY MASTER Closed strongly V/TT 1.34.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 7 12.0 1
2 0 JIMMU Closed strongly SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui 11 8.3 1
3 0 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 6 5.1 1-1/2
4 0 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 2 2.4 1-1/2
5 0 RIGHTEOUS WIN Closed strongly V-/B2 H Bentley · P F Yiu 13 36.0 4-1/4
6 0 CHEEKY PRAWN B/E B Shinn · J Size 5 23.0 5-1/4
7 0 LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 14 18.0 7
8 0 RUN RUN GOOD B A Badel · K L Man 9 15.0 7-3/4
9 0 WONDER EXPRESS B/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 6.9 8
10 0 SMILING FACE B C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 31.0 10-1/2
11 0 HAPPY WINNER H/P H N Wong · L Ho 12 135.0 11
12 0 CRUCIATUS B-/TT H W Lai · C W Chang 3 38.0 22
13 0 MAGIC BONUS Led early M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 100.0 24
— 0 ANONYMA N Callan · D E Ferraris — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-06-20 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOY MASTER, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with JIMMU second and LUCKY MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite JIANGXI STAMINA finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOY MASTER—2. JIMMU+1L3. LUCKY MISSILE+1.5L4. JIANGXI STAMINA+1.5L5. RIGHTEOUS WIN+4.25L6. CHEEKY PRAWN+5.25L7. LIGHT MY DAY+7L8. RUN RUN GOOD+7.75L9. WONDER EXPRESS+8L10. SMILING FACE+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JIANGXI STAMINA (27.0%) finished 4th — the winner JOY MASTER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 27.0% 3.70 4
2 0 LUCKY MISSILE 17.9% 5.58 3
3 0 WONDER EXPRESS 16.0% 6.24 9
4 0 JIMMU 9.0% 11.06 2
5 0 SMILING FACE 8.1% 12.38 10
6 0 JOY MASTER 5.2% 19.22 1
7 0 CHEEKY PRAWN 5.1% 19.61 6
8 0 RUN RUN GOOD 4.1% 24.11 8
9 0 RIGHTEOUS WIN 3.1% 32.55 5
10 0 LIGHT MY DAY 1.5% 65.91 7
11 0 CRUCIATUS 1.0% 97.33 12
12 0 MAGIC BONUS 0.9% 110.31 13
13 0 HAPPY WINNER 0.9% 110.34 11
JIANGXI STAMINALUCKY MISSILEWONDER EXPRESSJIMMUSMILING FACEJOY MASTER — wonCHEEKY PRAWNRUN RUN GOODRIGHTEOUS WINLIGHT MY DAYCRUCIATUSMAGIC BONUSHAPPY WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 125.5

PLACE

5 18

8 22

11 32

QUINELLA

8,11 521

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 66

5,11 113.5

8,11 141.5

FORECAST

11,8 1,027

TIERCE

11,8,5 5,031

TRIO

5,8,11 806

FIRST 4

1,5,8,11 308

QUARTET

11,8,5,1 11,155

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3 —

A1 —