沙田 · 2021-06-26
第 4場
2021-06-26沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由J Moreira策騎、K W Lui訓練的SUPER FAST勝出，贏出4。EL VALIENTE獲得亞軍；DRAGON COMMANDER獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER FAST 一路領先 XB 1.38.50 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 1 | 2.3 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | EL VALIENTE 後段發力 B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 3 | 13 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 12 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | HAPPY WIN WIN B-/P1/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 2 | 78.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 5 | 6.1 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | PIANO SOLO 後段發力 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 14 | 20.0 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | OH BRAVO 後段發力 TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 11 | 20.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | SMART FOLKS P A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 12.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR 後段發力 PC K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 9 | 13.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY DIAMOND B C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 3 | 48.0 | 16-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS 後段發力 H/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 13 | 48.0 | 20-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 32.0 | 28-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | INCREDIBLE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 129.0 | 32-1/4 |
| 14 | 6 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B-/SR1 T Piccone · D J Whyte | T Piccone | D J Whyte | 7 | 24.0 | 43 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER FAST | 28.4% | 3.52 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | PIANO SOLO | 15.0% | 6.68 | 6 |
| 3 | 5 | LADY FIRST | 14.0% | 7.16 | 5 |
| 4 | 13 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 12.3% | 8.12 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 4.7% | 21.17 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 4.2% | 23.92 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | OH BRAVO | 3.2% | 31.47 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 2.9% | 34.09 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | EL VALIENTE | 2.9% | 34.97 | 2 |
| 10 | 10 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 2.8% | 35.87 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | SMART FOLKS | 2.8% | 36.04 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | V CHEVALIERS | 2.7% | 37.60 | 11 |
| 13 | 8 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 2.3% | 43.96 | 4 |
| 14 | 14 | INCREDIBLE | 2.0% | 50.97 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 23
PLACE
7 12
12 35
13 22
QUINELLA
7,12 142.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,12 58.5
7,13 32
12,13 100
FORECAST
7,12 252
TIERCE
7,12,13 963
TRIO
7,12,13 271
FIRST 4
7,8,12,13 2,916
QUARTET
7,12,13,8 30,532
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,10,13/7,12,13 50,804
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/7 490.5
10/12 319