沙田 · 2021-10-24
第 4場
2021-10-24沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由L Ferraris策騎、K H Ting訓練的FLYING SWORD勝出，贏出1/2。BOOM STITCH獲得亞軍；FLYING VICTORY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.6倍大熱門DURHAM STAR跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FLYING SWORD 後段發力 B/TT 1.21.80 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 5 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | BOOM STITCH CP1 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 9 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | FLYING VICTORY 後段發力 H/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 14 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 6 | 46.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | DURHAM STAR B1 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | LAPUTA TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | GOLDEN BOLT 早段領放 SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 7.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | DARCI JOY B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 13 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | AI ONE 後段發力 C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 12 | 64.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | GREAT KING SR/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 177.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY B/TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 14 | 259.0 | 5-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DURHAM STAR | 17.6% | 5.68 | 6 |
| 2 | 7 | LEADING FORTUNE | 14.3% | 7.02 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 13.6% | 7.38 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN BOLT | 13.3% | 7.52 | 9 |
| 5 | 3 | FLYING VICTORY | 8.5% | 11.81 | 3 |
| 6 | 13 | DARCI JOY | 6.7% | 14.86 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | BOOM STITCH | 6.0% | 16.64 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | LAPUTA | 5.5% | 18.23 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | FLYING SWORD | 4.9% | 20.21 | 1 |
| 10 | 14 | GOLDEN FOUR | 3.0% | 33.78 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | AI ONE | 2.1% | 46.66 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | GREAT KING | 2.1% | 48.14 | 13 |
| 13 | 1 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 1.7% | 59.56 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY | 0.8% | 123.61 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 132.5
PLACE
3 52.5
4 21.5
10 41
QUINELLA
4,10 330.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 164.5
3,10 338
4,10 146.5
FORECAST
10,4 1,990
TIERCE
10,4,3 14,005
TRIO
3,4,10 2,088
FIRST 4
3,4,10,14 19,194
QUARTET
10,4,3,14 255,982
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,9/3,4,10 634,508
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 27
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 38.5
1/10 738