Sha Tin · 2021-10-24
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 5 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | BOOM STITCH CP1 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 9 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | FLYING VICTORY Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 6 | 46.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | DURHAM STAR B1 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LAPUTA TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GOLDEN BOLT Led early SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 7.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | DARCI JOY B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 13 | 31.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | AI ONE Closed strongly C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 12 | 64.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | GREAT KING SR/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 177.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | DAILY BEAUTY B/TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 14 | 259.0 | 5-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLYING SWORD, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by 1/2, with BOOM STITCH second and FLYING VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite DURHAM STAR finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DURHAM STAR | 17.6% | 5.68 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | LEADING FORTUNE | 14.3% | 7.02 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 13.6% | 7.38 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | GOLDEN BOLT | 13.3% | 7.52 | 9 |
| 5 | 0 | FLYING VICTORY | 8.5% | 11.81 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | DARCI JOY | 6.7% | 14.86 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | BOOM STITCH | 6.0% | 16.64 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | LAPUTA | 5.5% | 18.23 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | FLYING SWORD | 4.9% | 20.21 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | GOLDEN FOUR | 3.0% | 33.78 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | AI ONE | 2.1% | 46.66 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | GREAT KING | 2.1% | 48.14 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 1.7% | 59.56 | 11 |
| 14 | 0 | DAILY BEAUTY | 0.8% | 123.61 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 132.5
PLACE
3 52.5
4 21.5
10 41
QUINELLA
4,10 330.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 164.5
3,10 338
4,10 146.5
FORECAST
10,4 1,990
TIERCE
10,4,3 14,005
TRIO
3,4,10 2,088
FIRST 4
3,4,10,14 19,194
QUARTET
10,4,3,14 255,982
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,9/3,4,10 634,508
3 PICK 1
A3 27
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 38.5
1/10 738