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Sha Tin · 2021-10-24

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-24 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SO AWESOME, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K L Man, won by 2-3/4, with ZACIAN second and VICTORIOUS LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SO AWESOME Closed strongly 1.22.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K L Man 10 2.9 2-3/4
2 5 ZACIAN Closed strongly B- C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 11.0 2-3/4
3 9 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 17.0 2-3/4
4 12 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 5.6 3
5 2 LITTLE PLAYER Closed strongly B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 13.0 3-1/4
6 11 KWAI CHUNG ELITE B C Schofield · K H Ting 1 30.0 3-3/4
7 8 SCENIC SWEETIE TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 11.0 4
8 3 REGENCY GEM Closed strongly B-/TT A Badel · W Y So 2 13.0 4-1/4
9 13 EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB L Ferraris · A T Millard 11 13.0 5
10 14 BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly B2 V Borges · C W Chang 13 19.0 5
11 4 SUPER FLAMES B H T Mo · L Ho 4 180.0 5-1/2
12 6 SOCCER MASTER TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 8 15.0 6-3/4
13 10 INCREDIBLE Led early B-/TT C Wong · T P Yung 14 42.0 7
14 7 UNIVERSAL CROWN B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 15.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO AWESOME2. ZACIAN+2.75L3. VICTORIOUS LEADER+2.75L4. BRAVE POWER+3L5. LITTLE PLAYER+3.25L6. KWAI CHUNG ELITE+3.75L7. SCENIC SWEETIE+4L8. REGENCY GEM+4.25L9. EVEN KEEL+5L10. BIG BANG BONG+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BRAVE POWER (13.7%) finished 4th — the winner SO AWESOME was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 BRAVE POWER 13.7% 7.29 4
2 3 REGENCY GEM 11.4% 8.77 8
3 5 ZACIAN 9.5% 10.54 2
4 9 VICTORIOUS LEADER 8.5% 11.82 3
5 6 SOCCER MASTER 8.2% 12.14 12
6 1 SO AWESOME 8.0% 12.47 1
7 2 LITTLE PLAYER 7.5% 13.31 5
8 11 KWAI CHUNG ELITE 7.5% 13.34 6
9 13 EVEN KEEL 7.0% 14.29 9
10 7 UNIVERSAL CROWN 6.4% 15.59 14
11 8 SCENIC SWEETIE 5.7% 17.63 7
12 10 INCREDIBLE 3.4% 29.72 13
13 14 BIG BANG BONG 2.5% 39.60 10
14 4 SUPER FLAMES 0.7% 144.67 11
BRAVE POWERREGENCY GEMZACIANVICTORIOUS LEADERSOCCER MASTERSO AWESOME — wonLITTLE PLAYERKWAI CHUNG ELITEEVEN KEELUNIVERSAL CROWNSCENIC SWEETIEINCREDIBLEBIG BANG BONGSUPER FLAMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 29.5

PLACE

1 15

5 37.5

9 44

QUINELLA

1,5 219.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 87.5

1,9 98.5

5,9 283

FORECAST

1,5 285

TIERCE

1,5,9 4,042

TRIO

1,5,9 990

FIRST 4

1,5,9,12 853

QUARTET

1,5,9,12 15,210

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 293

8/5 97.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19.5