Sha Tin · 2021-10-24
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-24 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY SPIRIT, ridden by A Badel and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with SOULMATE second and DECISIVE ACTION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SOULMATE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.33.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 3 | 9.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | SOULMATE Closed strongly J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 12 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | OSCAR GLORY Led early CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 5.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 7.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | EVER LAUGH Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 34.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | LEGION OF MERIT B2 H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 2 | 35.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | EASY FORTUNE Closed strongly CP K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 13 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 5 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | THE JOLLY E-/CP/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 39.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | CASIMIRO C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | MING WARRIOR Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 14 | 55.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 13 | WINNING STEED B/H A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 12.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | WITTY SCHOLAR R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 11 | 112.0 | 23-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | OSCAR GLORY | 24.7% | 4.04 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | SOULMATE | 16.8% | 5.96 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | DECISIVE ACTION | 12.6% | 7.92 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 9.8% | 10.26 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | LIGHT OF WANSHI | 7.6% | 13.16 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | CASIMIRO | 5.2% | 19.10 | 11 |
| 7 | 14 | EASY FORTUNE | 4.5% | 22.09 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | EVER LAUGH | 3.5% | 28.65 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | MING WARRIOR | 3.4% | 29.35 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | LEGION OF MERIT | 3.3% | 30.63 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | THE JOLLY | 3.1% | 32.51 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | GREAT TREASURE | 2.7% | 36.80 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | WINNING STEED | 2.2% | 44.53 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | WITTY SCHOLAR | 0.6% | 181.41 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 94.5
PLACE
1 15.5
3 31
6 28
QUINELLA
1,6 179
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 73
1,6 71
3,6 117
FORECAST
6,1 500
TIERCE
6,1,3 3,540
TRIO
1,3,6 539
FIRST 4
1,3,5,6 448
QUARTET
6,1,3,5 14,799
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 26
4TH DOUBLE
10/1 169.5
10/6 1,839