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Sha Tin · 2021-10-24

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HIGHLAND FORTUNE Closed strongly 1.20.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 5 5.7 SH
2 0 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 3.8 SH
3 0 SHINING GEM Closed strongly CP H Bentley · P F Yiu 1 19.0 3-3/4
4 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly P/XB/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 85.0 4-1/4
5 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E A Badel · J Size 9 11.0 4-1/2
6 0 BALLISTIC KING A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 23.0 5
7 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 2 31.0 6
8 0 MASTER MONTARO CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 13 3.5 7-1/4
9 0 MISTER SNOWDON SR/CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 7.5 8
10 0 RATTAN B2 K H Chan · R Gibson 4 35.0 9-1/2
11 0 DECRYPT Led early TT2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 69.0 10-1/4
12 0 SEA OF LIFE V C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 13.0 11-1/4
13 0 GOLDEN DASH B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 56.0 ML

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-24 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HIGHLAND FORTUNE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT second and SHINING GEM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite MASTER MONTARO finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGHLAND FORTUNE—2. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+0.1L3. SHINING GEM+3.75L4. AMAZING ONE PLUS+4.25L5. BEAUTY FIT+4.5L6. BALLISTIC KING+5L7. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+6L8. MASTER MONTARO+7.25L9. MISTER SNOWDON+8L10. RATTAN+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER MONTARO (21.7%) finished 8th — the winner HIGHLAND FORTUNE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MASTER MONTARO 21.7% 4.60 8
2 0 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 21.0% 4.77 2
3 0 MISTER SNOWDON 14.4% 6.95 9
4 0 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 8.9% 11.26 1
5 0 BEAUTY FIT 7.9% 12.67 5
6 0 SEA OF LIFE 6.5% 15.39 12
7 0 BALLISTIC KING 4.5% 22.06 6
8 0 GOLDEN DASH 4.2% 23.57 13
9 0 RATTAN 2.7% 36.60 10
10 0 SHINING GEM 2.4% 42.14 3
11 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS 2.2% 45.30 4
12 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 2.1% 46.65 7
13 0 DECRYPT 1.4% 70.06 11
MASTER MONTAROCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTMISTER SNOWDONHIGHLAND FORTUNE — wonBEAUTY FITSEA OF LIFEBALLISTIC KINGGOLDEN DASHRATTANSHINING GEMAMAZING ONE PLUSSUNSHINE WARRIORDECRYPT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 57

PLACE

2 16

7 19

10 48

QUINELLA

2,7 116.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 44.5

2,10 122

7,10 137.5

FORECAST

7,2 284

TIERCE

7,2,10 3,004

TRIO

2,7,10 777

FIRST 4

2,7,10,12 10,711

QUARTET

7,2,10,12 107,616

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 19

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,11/2,7,10 146,751

9TH DOUBLE

9/2 68

9/7 575

SIX UP

1,6/6,9/11,14/4,5/9,11/2,7 1,560

6/9/11/5/9/7 339,108

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

5/9/2 123

5/9/7 1,353