Sha Tin · 2021-10-24
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ROCK YA HEART, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with CALIFORNIA SPANGLE second and LOCKHEED third. The 1.7 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ROCK YA HEART CP1 1.08.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 8.7 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 1.7 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 7 | 35.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ELIGERE B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 4 | 41.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | GLUCK RACER V C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GLORIFIED FIRE A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 5 | 44.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 37.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CAPTAIN WIN M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 54.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | FANTASY B/XB1/TT- B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 10 | 194.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | BRIGHT KID B/XB H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 9 | 210.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | EMBARKED H M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 268.0 | 9 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY WITH YOU K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | BIG FORTUNE C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 49.1% | 2.04 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | GLUCK RACER | 15.4% | 6.51 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | ROCK YA HEART | 4.0% | 25.14 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | LOCKHEED | 3.8% | 26.46 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR | 3.5% | 28.46 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | ELIGERE | 3.2% | 31.44 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | CAPTAIN WIN | 2.4% | 40.86 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 0.9% | 112.07 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FANTASY | 0.8% | 123.00 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | BRIGHT KID | 0.4% | 268.96 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | EMBARKED | 0.3% | 336.13 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 87.5
PLACE
2 46
9 21
11 11.5
QUINELLA
9,11 75
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 197.5
2,11 85
9,11 27.5
FORECAST
9,11 308
TIERCE
9,11,2 2,604
TRIO
2,9,11 493
FIRST 4
2,3,9,11 165
QUARTET
9,11,2,3 8,384
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 60.5
8TH DOUBLE
5/9 104
5/11 10.5