沙田 · 2021-10-24
第 9場
2021-10-24沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、K W Lui訓練的ROCK YA HEART勝出，贏出SH。CALIFORNIA SPANGLE獲得亞軍；LOCKHEED獲得季軍。1.7倍大熱門CALIFORNIA SPANGLE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ROCK YA HEART CP1 1.08.68 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 8.7 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 1.7 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | LOCKHEED B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 7 | 35.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ELIGERE B L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 4 | 41.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | GLUCK RACER V C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GLORIFIED FIRE A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 5 | 44.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 37.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CAPTAIN WIN M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 54.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | FANTASY B/XB1/TT- B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 10 | 194.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | BRIGHT KID B/XB H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 9 | 210.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | EMBARKED H M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 268.0 | 9 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY WITH YOU K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | BIG FORTUNE C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 49.1% | 2.04 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | GLUCK RACER | 15.4% | 6.51 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | ROCK YA HEART | 4.0% | 25.14 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | LOCKHEED | 3.8% | 26.46 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR | 3.5% | 28.46 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | ELIGERE | 3.2% | 31.44 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | CAPTAIN WIN | 2.4% | 40.86 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 0.9% | 112.07 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FANTASY | 0.8% | 123.00 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | BRIGHT KID | 0.4% | 268.96 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | EMBARKED | 0.3% | 336.13 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 87.5
PLACE
2 46
9 21
11 11.5
QUINELLA
9,11 75
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 197.5
2,11 85
9,11 27.5
FORECAST
9,11 308
TIERCE
9,11,2 2,604
TRIO
2,9,11 493
FIRST 4
2,3,9,11 165
QUARTET
9,11,2,3 8,384
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 60.5
8TH DOUBLE
5/9 104
5/11 10.5