沙田 · 2021-11-28
第 5場
2021-11-28沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIA CONCORD勝出，贏出3/4。PRIME MINISTER獲得亞軍；HANDSOME TWELVE獲得季軍。1.7倍大熱門FIVE ELEMENTS跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT 1.08.62 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | PRIME MINISTER TT V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 9 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | HANDSOME TWELVE C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 61.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | LOCKHEED B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 6.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FIVE ELEMENTS CP1 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 12 | 1.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | ELIGERE B H Bentley · Y S Tsui | H Bentley | Y S Tsui | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | LUCKY QUALITY H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 5 | 54.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | NAVAS TWO R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 6 | 68.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | SOLID IMPACT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 98.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPREME SUPREME K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 1 | 42.0 | 6 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FIVE ELEMENTS | 32.8% | 3.05 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | LOCKHEED | 19.6% | 5.09 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 12.2% | 8.20 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | ELIGERE | 8.4% | 11.97 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE | 4.9% | 20.25 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | HANDSOME TWELVE | 4.5% | 22.20 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | PRIME MINISTER | 4.1% | 24.56 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | SOLID IMPACT | 3.5% | 28.76 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | NAVAS TWO | 2.7% | 36.75 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPREME SUPREME | 2.7% | 37.02 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 2.6% | 38.01 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | LUCKY QUALITY | 1.9% | 51.64 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 62
PLACE
3 18.5
6 50
9 108.5
QUINELLA
3,6 693
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 163
3,9 349.5
6,9 1,341
FORECAST
3,6 1,316
TIERCE
3,6,9 36,272
TRIO
3,6,9 9,460
FIRST 4
1,3,6,9 11,817
QUARTET
3,6,9,1 273,557
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 33
4TH DOUBLE
13/3 498.5
13/6 542