沙田 · 2021-11-28
第 4場
2021-11-28沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BRAVE POWER勝出，贏出1-1/4。VICTORIOUS LEADER獲得亞軍；SUPER KIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.0倍大熱門KING'S TROOPER跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | BRAVE POWER 後段發力 B/TT 1.22.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 14 | 7.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | VICTORIOUS LEADER 後段發力 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 9.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SUPER KIN 後段發力 TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 27.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | SPEEDY DRAGON B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 5 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE 後段發力 A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 7 | 34.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 3 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | TELECOM ELITE 後段發力 K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SEA MONARCH 早段領放 H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 12 | 56.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | LITTLE PLAYER B1 H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 6 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | AUGUST MOON BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BRILLIANT CHINA B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES B H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 192.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | EVEN KEEL B/XB M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 13 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | BRAVE POWER | 15.6% | 6.39 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER | 14.4% | 6.92 | 9 |
| 3 | 10 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 11.4% | 8.77 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER KIN | 9.5% | 10.53 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | BRILLIANT CHINA | 8.0% | 12.44 | 12 |
| 6 | 7 | TELECOM ELITE | 6.9% | 14.41 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | GOLDEN FOUR | 6.4% | 15.70 | 6 |
| 8 | 14 | EVEN KEEL | 5.6% | 17.77 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | AUGUST MOON | 5.5% | 18.12 | 11 |
| 10 | 5 | LITTLE PLAYER | 5.5% | 18.23 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 4.6% | 21.97 | 4 |
| 13 | 12 | SEA MONARCH | 1.0% | 98.25 | 8 |
| 14 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES | 0.8% | 127.42 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
13 72.5
PLACE
10 32.5
11 67.5
13 29.5
QUINELLA
10,13 397
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 348.5
10,13 133
11,13 295
FORECAST
13,10 971
TIERCE
13,10,11 12,639
TRIO
10,11,13 2,666
FIRST 4
9,10,11,13 5,357
QUARTET
13,10,11,9 128,634
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,8/10,11,13 90,103
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 42
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/10 148
8/13 962