Sha Tin · 2021-11-28
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BRAVE POWER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with VICTORIOUS LEADER second and SUPER KIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite KING'S TROOPER finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 14 | 7.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 9.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SUPER KIN Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 27.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | SPEEDY DRAGON B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 5 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 7 | 34.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 3 | 9.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | TELECOM ELITE Closed strongly K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SEA MONARCH Led early H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 12 | 56.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | LITTLE PLAYER B1 H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 6 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | AUGUST MOON BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BRILLIANT CHINA B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES B H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 192.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | EVEN KEEL B/XB M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 13 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | BRAVE POWER | 15.6% | 6.39 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER | 14.4% | 6.92 | 9 |
| 3 | 10 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 11.4% | 8.77 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER KIN | 9.5% | 10.53 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | BRILLIANT CHINA | 8.0% | 12.44 | 12 |
| 6 | 7 | TELECOM ELITE | 6.9% | 14.41 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | GOLDEN FOUR | 6.4% | 15.70 | 6 |
| 8 | 14 | EVEN KEEL | 5.6% | 17.77 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | AUGUST MOON | 5.5% | 18.12 | 11 |
| 10 | 5 | LITTLE PLAYER | 5.5% | 18.23 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | LUCKY MISSILE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 4.6% | 21.97 | 4 |
| 13 | 12 | SEA MONARCH | 1.0% | 98.25 | 8 |
| 14 | 8 | SUPER FLAMES | 0.8% | 127.42 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 72.5
PLACE
10 32.5
11 67.5
13 29.5
QUINELLA
10,13 397
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 348.5
10,13 133
11,13 295
FORECAST
13,10 971
TIERCE
13,10,11 12,639
TRIO
10,11,13 2,666
FIRST 4
9,10,11,13 5,357
QUARTET
13,10,11,9 128,634
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,8/10,11,13 90,103
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 42
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/10 148
8/13 962