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Sha Tin · 2021-11-28

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SOULMATE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/2, with SUPER TEN second and XIANG YIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite XIANG YIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.33.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SOULMATE Closed strongly 1.33.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P F Yiu 8 3.9 2-1/2
2 6 SUPER TEN Led early B-/XB/CP2 B Shinn · D J Whyte 6 5.3 2-1/2
3 9 XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 2.7 2-3/4
4 5 CHAMPION DRAGON Closed strongly H1/TT1 M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 10.0 2-3/4
5 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · T P Yung 1 15.0 3-1/2
6 3 FUNCTION PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 5 41.0 4-1/4
7 7 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B1 A Hamelin · A T Millard 7 147.0 4-3/4
8 12 PACKING FAMOUS B/TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 2 39.0 5-3/4
9 2 WINNING DRAGON Closed strongly H1/TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 13 27.0 6
10 8 PERFECT TO GREAT V L Hewitson · C Fownes 12 25.0 6-1/2
11 1 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly P1/TT1 Z Purton · J Size 11 9.4 7-1/2
12 13 KASI FARASI TT C Wong · C H Yip 4 121.0 7-3/4
13 4 KING TOURBILLON B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui 9 195.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOULMATE2. SUPER TEN+2.5L3. XIANG YIN+2.75L4. CHAMPION DRAGON+2.75L5. PERFECT MARYKNOLL+3.5L6. FUNCTION PATCH+4.25L7. INTREPID WINNER+4.75L8. PACKING FAMOUS+5.75L9. WINNING DRAGON+6L10. PERFECT TO GREAT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SOULMATE (31.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SOULMATE 31.1% 3.22 1
2 1 HIT THE SHOT 17.7% 5.66 11
3 9 XIANG YIN 15.4% 6.51 3
4 6 SUPER TEN 7.2% 13.87 2
5 12 PACKING FAMOUS 5.9% 16.93 8
6 8 PERFECT TO GREAT 5.3% 18.93 10
7 5 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.0% 25.26 4
8 2 WINNING DRAGON 3.7% 26.76 9
9 13 KASI FARASI 2.8% 35.71 12
10 7 INTREPID WINNER 2.5% 40.45 7
11 10 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 2.3% 43.51 5
12 3 FUNCTION PATCH 1.6% 62.40 6
13 4 KING TOURBILLON 0.6% 163.23 13
SOULMATE — wonHIT THE SHOTXIANG YINSUPER TENPACKING FAMOUSPERFECT TO GREATCHAMPION DRAGONWINNING DRAGONKASI FARASIINTREPID WINNERPERFECT MARYKNOLLFUNCTION PATCHKING TOURBILLON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 39.5

PLACE

6 17.5

9 13.5

11 17

QUINELLA

6,11 111

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 31.5

6,11 41

9,11 25.5

FORECAST

11,6 250

TIERCE

11,6,9 410

TRIO

6,9,11 71

FIRST 4

5,6,9,11 173

QUARTET

11,6,9,5 3,874

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16.5

A3

A2

7TH DOUBLE

11/6 47.5

11/11 253.5