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Sha Tin · 2021-11-28

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPARKLING DOLPHIN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with NOBLE DESIRE second and GLENEALY GENERALS third. Victory came as the 4.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 0.56.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · Y S Tsui 10 4.9 SH
2 5 NOBLE DESIRE CP/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte 12 25.0 SH
3 14 GLENEALY GENERALS B H Bentley · C H Yip 1 23.0 3/4
4 2 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · D J Hall 14 9.8 1-1/4
5 11 WONDERFUL HORSE C L Chau · C Fownes 2 10.0 1-1/2
6 12 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 10.0 1-1/2
7 3 INFINITY WIN CP-/B1/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 5 5.8 2-1/2
8 4 EUROMISSILE CP/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 11 67.0 2-3/4
9 10 GORGEOUS VITALITY C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 11.0 3-1/2
10 1 CORRIENTHES SR M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 7 16.0 5-1/4
11 7 AQUILA XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 6 18.0 7
12 6 ALL RICHES K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 19.0 7-1/4
13 9 FELIX THE KING H W Lai · K L Man 4 160.0 12-1/2
14 8 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR E1 J Moreira · T P Yung 8 5.4 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING DOLPHIN2. NOBLE DESIRE+0.1L3. GLENEALY GENERALS+0.75L4. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+1.25L5. WONDERFUL HORSE+1.5L6. CIRCUIT SEVEN+1.5L7. INFINITY WIN+2.5L8. EUROMISSILE+2.75L9. GORGEOUS VITALITY+3.5L10. CORRIENTHES+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick INFINITY WIN (17.0%) finished 7th — the winner SPARKLING DOLPHIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 INFINITY WIN 17.0% 5.88 7
2 8 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 13.3% 7.54 14
3 13 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 10.8% 9.29 1
4 10 GORGEOUS VITALITY 10.0% 9.98 9
5 1 CORRIENTHES 8.5% 11.71 10
6 11 WONDERFUL HORSE 7.2% 13.86 5
7 2 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 6.5% 15.36 4
8 14 GLENEALY GENERALS 6.5% 15.40 3
9 6 ALL RICHES 5.8% 17.23 12
10 12 CIRCUIT SEVEN 5.1% 19.53 6
11 5 NOBLE DESIRE 3.9% 25.33 2
12 4 EUROMISSILE 2.1% 48.57 8
13 9 FELIX THE KING 1.8% 54.34 13
14 7 AQUILA 1.4% 69.56 11
INFINITY WINCIRCUIT SPLENDORSPARKLING DOLPHIN — wonGORGEOUS VITALITYCORRIENTHESWONDERFUL HORSEEIGHT TRIGRAMSGLENEALY GENERALSALL RICHESCIRCUIT SEVENNOBLE DESIREEUROMISSILEFELIX THE KINGAQUILA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 49.5

PLACE

5 64

13 20.5

14 57.5

QUINELLA

5,13 591

QUINELLA PLACE

5,13 213

5,14 560.5

13,14 183.5

FORECAST

13,5 988

TIERCE

13,5,14 12,938

TRIO

5,13,14 3,601

FIRST 4

2,5,13,14 4,677

QUARTET

13,5,14,2 71,357

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 27

A3

A2