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Sha Tin · 2021-11-28

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EVERYONE'S VICTORY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/4, with WHIZZ KID second and THUNDERSTRIKE third. The 2.1 favourite WHIZZ KID finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 EVERYONE'S VICTORY H/TT 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · F C Lor 8 10.0 2-1/4
2 2 WHIZZ KID B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 3 2.1 2-1/4
3 4 THUNDERSTRIKE B/H C Y Ho · D J Whyte 10 10.0 4
4 10 JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 34.0 5
5 11 FORTUNE HAPPINESS B-/V1 R Maia · K W Lui 4 18.0 5-1/4
6 1 UTOPIA LIFE B K H Chan · K L Man 7 16.0 5-1/2
7 3 STEEL WIN C L Chau · C W Chang 12 7.9 5-3/4
8 12 AMAZEMENT B V Borges · J Size 6 35.0 6-3/4
9 7 BLOTTING PAPER B/TT1 A Hamelin · R Gibson 9 49.0 9-1/2
10 9 HANDSOME REBEL B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 5 45.0 10-3/4
11 6 THIS IS GUTS B1/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 1 9.7 18-3/4
12 5 PACKING KINGDOM TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 9.9 56-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EVERYONE'S VICTORY2. WHIZZ KID+2.25L3. THUNDERSTRIKE+4L4. JADE THEATRE+5L5. FORTUNE HAPPINESS+5.25L6. UTOPIA LIFE+5.5L7. STEEL WIN+5.75L8. AMAZEMENT+6.75L9. BLOTTING PAPER+9.5L10. HANDSOME REBEL+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WHIZZ KID (37.3%) finished 2nd — the winner EVERYONE'S VICTORY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WHIZZ KID 37.3% 2.68 2
2 3 STEEL WIN 10.6% 9.39 7
3 11 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 9.1% 10.97 5
4 4 THUNDERSTRIKE 8.6% 11.58 3
5 12 AMAZEMENT 6.3% 15.88 8
6 5 PACKING KINGDOM 6.1% 16.28 12
7 8 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 5.4% 18.37 1
8 1 UTOPIA LIFE 3.8% 26.01 6
9 10 JADE THEATRE 3.3% 30.34 4
10 7 BLOTTING PAPER 3.2% 31.32 9
11 9 HANDSOME REBEL 3.2% 31.55 10
12 6 THIS IS GUTS 2.9% 33.93 11
WHIZZ KIDSTEEL WINFORTUNE HAPPINESSTHUNDERSTRIKEAMAZEMENTPACKING KINGDOMEVERYONE'S VICTORY — wonUTOPIA LIFEJADE THEATREBLOTTING PAPERHANDSOME REBELTHIS IS GUTS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 106.5

PLACE

2 12.5

4 25

8 23.5

QUINELLA

2,8 102

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 51

2,8 39.5

4,8 90.5

FORECAST

8,2 319

TIERCE

8,2,4 1,669

TRIO

2,4,8 169

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 430

QUARTET

8,2,4,10 13,675

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/2 10.5

9/8 241.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 34

A1