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Sha Tin · 2021-11-28

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LIGHT OF WANSHI, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with DARCI JOY second and OSCAR GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT 1.34.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 2 2.2 1-1/4
2 10 DARCI JOY B K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 12.0 1-1/4
3 1 OSCAR GLORY Led early CP M F Poon · F C Lor 10 5.6 1-1/2
4 12 PLIKCLONE B A Hamelin · D J Hall 1 9.4 1-1/2
5 2 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 7.8 1-3/4
6 7 VITRALITE Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D E Ferraris 11 155.0 3-1/4
7 4 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 12 39.0 3-1/2
8 5 BIG BROOK B/TT1 K H Chan · C Fownes 4 104.0 4-1/4
9 11 LEADING FORTUNE J Moreira · J Size 7 12.0 4-3/4
10 6 SUPER ELEGANCE B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 6 28.0 6
11 13 SMART FOLKS CP1 H N Wong · C W Chang 5 84.0 7-1/2
12 3 GOOD HEALTH M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 148.0 7-3/4
13 8 FULL POWER B/XB C L Chau · R Gibson 13 109.0 8
14 14 GO GO SIXTEEN B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 10.0 10
0 DECISIVE ACTION R Maia · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHT OF WANSHI2. DARCI JOY+1.25L3. OSCAR GLORY+1.5L4. PLIKCLONE+1.5L5. VIVA POPCORN+1.75L6. VITRALITE+3.25L7. SMART PATCH+3.5L8. BIG BROOK+4.25L9. LEADING FORTUNE+4.75L10. SUPER ELEGANCE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHT OF WANSHI (27.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LIGHT OF WANSHI 27.0% 3.71 1
2 1 OSCAR GLORY 15.9% 6.29 3
3 12 PLIKCLONE 11.9% 8.40 4
4 10 DARCI JOY 8.6% 11.65 2
5 2 VIVA POPCORN 7.2% 13.98 5
6 11 LEADING FORTUNE 6.6% 15.22 9
7 14 GO GO SIXTEEN 6.4% 15.65 14
8 5 BIG BROOK 4.8% 20.87 8
9 6 SUPER ELEGANCE 3.9% 25.70 10
10 8 FULL POWER 2.2% 46.35 13
11 4 SMART PATCH 2.1% 48.47 7
12 13 SMART FOLKS 2.0% 50.05 11
13 7 VITRALITE 0.9% 109.14 6
14 3 GOOD HEALTH 0.7% 139.82 12
LIGHT OF WANSHI — wonOSCAR GLORYPLIKCLONEDARCI JOYVIVA POPCORNLEADING FORTUNEGO GO SIXTEENBIG BROOKSUPER ELEGANCEFULL POWERSMART PATCHSMART FOLKSVITRALITEGOOD HEALTH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 22.5

PLACE

1 16

9 12.5

10 33.5

QUINELLA

9,10 121

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 32

1,10 89.5

9,10 50

FORECAST

9,10 227

TIERCE

9,10,1 586

TRIO

1,9,10 174

FIRST 4

1,9,10,12 259

QUARTET

9,10,1,12 3,471

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

13/9 89.5

13/10 88

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3

A2