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Sha Tin · 2021-11-28

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SIGHT SPIRIT Closed strongly 1.21.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 6 5.2 1-1/4
2 0 FLYING SWORD Led early B/TT Z Purton · K H Ting 5 5.2 1-1/4
3 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho 9 9.8 2
4 0 BOOM STITCH Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · W Y So 10 6.0 3
5 0 SO AWESOME Closed strongly K H Chan · K L Man 1 11.0 3-1/2
6 0 BAEBAE TSOI CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 12 12.0 4-1/4
7 0 VUKAN Closed strongly XB B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 13 18.0 4-1/4
8 0 MEGA BONUS XB V Borges · P F Yiu 4 9.7 6-1/2
9 0 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D J Hall 7 11.0 7-1/2
10 0 VOYAGE STAR V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 9.1 7-3/4
11 0 MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 11 65.0 10
12 0 TRONIC MIGHTY XB/B1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 78.0 11-1/4
13 0 FASTER B1/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 136.0 11-1/4
14 0 BOYS PARTY XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 14 143.0 17-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SIGHT SPIRIT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with FLYING SWORD second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT SPIRIT—2. FLYING SWORD+1.25L3. HAPPY DAILY+2L4. BOOM STITCH+3L5. SO AWESOME+3.5L6. BAEBAE TSOI+4.25L7. VUKAN+4.25L8. MEGA BONUS+6.5L9. KUNG FU TEA+7.5L10. VOYAGE STAR+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLYING SWORD (23.8%) finished 2nd — the winner SIGHT SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING SWORD 23.8% 4.20 2
2 0 SIGHT SPIRIT 15.1% 6.60 1
3 0 BOOM STITCH 12.6% 7.94 4
4 0 KUNG FU TEA 10.7% 9.36 9
5 0 BAEBAE TSOI 9.2% 10.85 6
6 0 MEGA BONUS 7.6% 13.11 8
7 0 VOYAGE STAR 5.2% 19.41 10
8 0 HAPPY DAILY 4.6% 21.88 3
9 0 SO AWESOME 3.9% 25.50 5
10 0 VUKAN 2.6% 38.85 7
11 0 MR ALDAN 1.9% 53.09 11
12 0 FASTER 1.2% 85.87 13
13 0 TRONIC MIGHTY 0.8% 119.32 12
14 0 BOYS PARTY 0.8% 125.20 14
FLYING SWORDSIGHT SPIRIT — wonBOOM STITCHKUNG FU TEABAEBAE TSOIMEGA BONUSVOYAGE STARHAPPY DAILYSO AWESOMEVUKANMR ALDANFASTERTRONIC MIGHTYBOYS PARTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 52.5

PLACE

3 21.5

7 18

9 27

QUINELLA

3,7 152

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 61.5

3,9 104

7,9 108

FORECAST

7,3 317

TIERCE

7,3,9 1,938

TRIO

3,7,9 420

FIRST 4

2,3,7,9 328

QUARTET

7,3,9,2 7,637

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 26

A2 —

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

3/3 43

3/7 419.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

10,11,13/3,6,9/Any Combination 903,832