Sha Tin · 2021-11-28
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUNNY BOY, ridden by C L Chau and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with WHEN YOU BELIEVE second and HARMONY SPIRIT third. The 4.0 favourite WHEN YOU BELIEVE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUNNY BOY B/TT 1.08.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 1 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 3 | 4.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | HARMONY SPIRIT XB/CP2/TT1 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT R Maia · K L Man | R Maia | K L Man | 6 | 4.8 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | ELON E/P V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | JAZZ ANGEL C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 8.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | GUNNISON K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | SUNSET WATCH PC-/B1 J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 12 | 7.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | SPLENDID LIVING CP1 M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 31.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | GREEN LASER SR1/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 10 | 83.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | NORTHERN DRAGON H H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 11 | 53.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | SUNSHINE SUPREME TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 2 | 39.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE | 28.8% | 3.47 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | SUNSET WATCH | 12.1% | 8.25 | 8 |
| 3 | 10 | MAGIC SUPREME | 10.9% | 9.16 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | JAZZ ANGEL | 10.1% | 9.85 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | SUNNY BOY | 8.2% | 12.20 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | HARMONY SPIRIT | 8.2% | 12.24 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | ELON | 7.0% | 14.23 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | GUNNISON | 4.9% | 20.57 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | SUNSHINE SUPREME | 3.8% | 26.24 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | SPLENDID LIVING | 2.8% | 36.19 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | NORTHERN DRAGON | 2.5% | 39.67 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | GREEN LASER | 0.7% | 152.87 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 75.5
PLACE
1 18
2 27.5
5 36
QUINELLA
1,2 201
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 76.5
1,5 101
2,5 173.5
FORECAST
2,1 481
TIERCE
2,1,5 4,244
TRIO
1,2,5 742
FIRST 4
1,2,5,10 860
QUARTET
2,1,5,10 24,242
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 19.5
A2 —
A1 —
8TH DOUBLE
11/1 33.5
11/2 333