沙田 · 2021-12-05
第 10場
2021-12-05沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BEAUTY JOY勝出，贏出1-1/2。THE IRISHMAN獲得亞軍；PAKISTAN FRIEND獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.4倍大熱門SKY FOREVER跑獲第13名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAUTY JOY 後段發力 XB-/H1/TT1 1.22.06 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | THE IRISHMAN 後段發力 H1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 33.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | PAKISTAN FRIEND 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 1 | 23.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | RISE BRETHREN 後段發力 TT1 R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 4 | 48.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 14 | SICOMORO 後段發力 H-/P- M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 14 | 131.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | BEAUTY LEGACY E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | TURIN REDSUN SR1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 6 | 47.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | PERFECT PAIR SR K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 8 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ALL BEAUTY 後段發力 CP- A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 4.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | SCIENCE PATCH 早段領放 B C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 43.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | HALL OF CHAMP TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 9 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | GRACYLOVE M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 12.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | SKY FOREVER B/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 13 | 3.4 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | MAKE IT QUICK B H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 12 | 243.0 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ALL BEAUTY | 17.1% | 5.85 | 9 |
| 2 | 13 | SKY FOREVER | 16.8% | 5.96 | 13 |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY JOY | 12.3% | 8.10 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 10.3% | 9.67 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | GRACYLOVE | 8.9% | 11.23 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | HALL OF CHAMP | 8.2% | 12.15 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | PERFECT PAIR | 6.3% | 15.76 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | THE IRISHMAN | 5.8% | 17.16 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 4.9% | 20.42 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | TURIN REDSUN | 2.7% | 36.63 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | RISE BRETHREN | 2.5% | 39.74 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | SCIENCE PATCH | 2.2% | 44.76 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | SICOMORO | 1.2% | 85.26 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | MAKE IT QUICK | 0.6% | 164.56 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 44
PLACE
1 80
2 18.5
11 56.5
QUINELLA
1,2 671
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 217.5
1,11 766
2,11 147
FORECAST
2,1 1,123
TIERCE
2,1,11 16,085
TRIO
1,2,11 1,999
FIRST 4
1,2,4,11 28,348
QUARTET
2,1,11,4 380,847
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 19
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,12/1,2,11 215,055
9TH DOUBLE
12/1 295
12/2 340.5
SIX UP
6,12/2,12/2,4/3,12/1,12/1,2 91,403
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
12/12/1 19,960
12/12/2 37,967