沙田 · 2022-02-03 · 16:08
第 8場
2022-02-03沙田第8場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的GALAXY WITNESS勝出，贏出1-1/4。ORIENTAL SMOKE獲得亞軍；HAPPY DAY獲得季軍。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GALAXY WITNESS 1.09.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 2.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | HAPPY DAY TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | STREET SCREAM H/B2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | SMART WONGCHOY CP/H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | ELIGERE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 30.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | TOUCH FAITH V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 13 | 61.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | SHINY TWO V/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 14 | 86.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | SEE U AGAIN TT1 A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | COOLCELEB B/TT L Currie · T P Yung | L Currie | T P Yung | 11 | 264.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | BELL OF VICTORY B1 B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 2 | 196.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | MEDIC ELITE L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 135.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 1 | YOUNG PASSION M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 223.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | VICTORY MORE H/B1 D Moor · K W Lui | D Moor | K W Lui | 1 | 116.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | GALAXY WITNESS | 28.4% | 3.52 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | SMART WONGCHOY | 6.9% | 14.42 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | STREET SCREAM | 6.4% | 15.60 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | SEE U AGAIN | 5.3% | 19.00 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY DAY | 3.8% | 26.24 | 3 |
| 7 | 13 | TOUCH FAITH | 3.3% | 30.42 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | ELIGERE | 2.4% | 42.09 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | YOUNG PASSION | 1.6% | 61.32 | 13 |
| 10 | 14 | VICTORY MORE | 1.6% | 64.10 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | COOLCELEB | 1.1% | 88.63 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | MEDIC ELITE | 1.0% | 99.87 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 | SHINY TWO | 0.8% | 127.42 | 8 |
| 14 | 6 | BELL OF VICTORY | 0.5% | 214.29 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 25
PLACE
3 13.5
4 12.5
7 28
QUINELLA
3,4 31.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 17
3,7 61
4,7 58.5
FORECAST
3,4 51
TIERCE
3,4,7 333
TRIO
3,4,7 123
FIRST 4
3,4,5,7 170
QUARTET
3,4,7,5 1,640
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,13/3,4,7 16,406
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 13
7TH DOUBLE
1/3 140
1/4 35.5