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Sha Tin · 2022-02-03 · 16:08

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALAXY WITNESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with ORIENTAL SMOKE second and HAPPY DAY third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GALAXY WITNESS 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 8 2.5 1-1/4
2 4 ORIENTAL SMOKE B Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 2.7 1-1/4
3 7 HAPPY DAY TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So 5 11.0 1-1/2
4 5 STREET SCREAM H/B2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 10.0 2-1/2
5 11 SMART WONGCHOY CP/H C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 10.0 3
6 2 ELIGERE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 7 30.0 3-1/2
7 13 TOUCH FAITH V Borges · J Size 13 61.0 4
8 12 SHINY TWO V/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 14 86.0 5-1/4
9 9 SEE U AGAIN TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 3 12.0 5-3/4
10 10 COOLCELEB B/TT L Currie · T P Yung 11 264.0 6-1/4
11 6 BELL OF VICTORY B1 B Shinn · C W Chang 2 196.0 7-1/2
12 8 MEDIC ELITE L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 12 135.0 10
13 1 YOUNG PASSION M F Poon · D J Hall 4 223.0 10-1/2
14 14 VICTORY MORE H/B1 D Moor · K W Lui 1 116.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY WITNESS2. ORIENTAL SMOKE+1.25L3. HAPPY DAY+1.5L4. STREET SCREAM+2.5L5. SMART WONGCHOY+3L6. ELIGERE+3.5L7. TOUCH FAITH+4L8. SHINY TWO+5.25L9. SEE U AGAIN+5.75L10. COOLCELEB+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (36.9%) finished 2nd — the winner GALAXY WITNESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ORIENTAL SMOKE 36.9% 2.71 2
2 3 GALAXY WITNESS 28.4% 3.52 1
3 11 SMART WONGCHOY 6.9% 14.42 5
4 5 STREET SCREAM 6.4% 15.60 4
5 9 SEE U AGAIN 5.3% 19.00 9
6 7 HAPPY DAY 3.8% 26.24 3
7 13 TOUCH FAITH 3.3% 30.42 7
8 2 ELIGERE 2.4% 42.09 6
9 1 YOUNG PASSION 1.6% 61.32 13
10 14 VICTORY MORE 1.6% 64.10 14
11 10 COOLCELEB 1.1% 88.63 10
12 8 MEDIC ELITE 1.0% 99.87 12
13 12 SHINY TWO 0.8% 127.42 8
14 6 BELL OF VICTORY 0.5% 214.29 11
ORIENTAL SMOKEGALAXY WITNESS — wonSMART WONGCHOYSTREET SCREAMSEE U AGAINHAPPY DAYTOUCH FAITHELIGEREYOUNG PASSIONVICTORY MORECOOLCELEBMEDIC ELITESHINY TWOBELL OF VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 25

PLACE

3 13.5

4 12.5

7 28

QUINELLA

3,4 31.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 17

3,7 61

4,7 58.5

FORECAST

3,4 51

TIERCE

3,4,7 333

TRIO

3,4,7 123

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 170

QUARTET

3,4,7,5 1,640

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,13/3,4,7 16,406

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 13

7TH DOUBLE

1/3 140

1/4 35.5