Sha Tin · 2022-02-03 · 17:19

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-02-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLYING ACE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER FORTUNE second and ARMOUR EAGLE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.27

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	FLYING ACE B 1.09.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	11	117 lb	2.1	1-1/4
2	13	SUPER FORTUNE CP/TT V Borges · A S Cruz	V Borges	A S Cruz	2	115 lb	11.0	1-1/4
3	6	ARMOUR EAGLE TT J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	13	118 lb	16.0	1-1/4
4	5	GALLANT EXPRESS E Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	5	120 lb	4.9	1-1/4
5	9	LIGHTNING BOLT TT K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	7	117 lb	4.3	1-3/4
6	12	PROSECCO H W Lai · W Y So	H W Lai	W Y So	3	115 lb	355.0	2-1/4
7	7	KUMASI C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	12	118 lb	22.0	2-1/4
8	1	FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang	A Hamelin	C W Chang	1	133 lb	20.0	2-1/4
9	14	BEAUTY MISSION SR A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	14	116 lb	81.0	2-1/2
10	3	GOOD VIEW CLARICO K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	9	120 lb	85.0	3-1/4
11	10	SUCCESS FIGHTER B1/TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	4	117 lb	200.0	4-1/4
12	11	HAPPY SHARING TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	10	116 lb	42.0	4-1/2
13	8	RIVER VIEWS TT1 D Moor · T P Yung	D Moor	T P Yung	8	118 lb	258.0	7-3/4
14	2	JOLLY RULER H1 L Currie · P F Yiu	L Currie	P F Yiu	6	121 lb	139.0	8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FLYING ACE (19.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	FLYING ACE	19.4%	5.16	1	2.1
2	5	GALLANT EXPRESS	19.1%	5.23	4	4.9
3	13	SUPER FORTUNE	15.0%	6.69	2	11.0
4	6	ARMOUR EAGLE	11.8%	8.49	3	16.0
5	9	LIGHTNING BOLT	10.5%	9.48	5	4.3
6	1	FAMILY FOLKS	6.0%	16.80	8	20.0
7	2	JOLLY RULER	4.7%	21.20	14	139.0
8	7	KUMASI	4.6%	21.51	7	22.0
9	14	BEAUTY MISSION	2.7%	36.48	9	81.0
10	8	RIVER VIEWS	1.8%	56.71	13	258.0
11	11	HAPPY SHARING	1.5%	67.39	12	42.0
12	10	SUCCESS FIGHTER	1.4%	71.57	11	200.0
13	3	GOOD VIEW CLARICO	1.2%	82.46	10	85.0
14	12	PROSECCO	0.3%	363.60	6	355.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 21.5

PLACE

4 12.5

6 36

13 27

QUINELLA

4,13 127

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 62

4,13 47

6,13 204.5

FORECAST

4,13 235

TIERCE

4,13,6 1,825

TRIO

4,6,13 497

FIRST 4

4,5,6,13 364

QUARTET

4,13,6,5 6,380

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 15

9TH DOUBLE

12/4 58.5

12/13 103

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