沙田 · 2022-05-15 · 14:31
第 4場
2022-05-15沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由B Shinn策騎、F C Lor訓練的MISSION SMART勝出，贏出N。ROYAL AGILITY獲得亞軍；AMIGOS GIGGLE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MISSION SMART 後段發力 CP 1.23.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 11 | 3.4 | N |
| 2 | 4 | ROYAL AGILITY 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | AMIGOS GIGGLE 早段領放 K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 5.9 | N |
| 4 | 13 | RUBY STARS CP/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 7 | 26.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | ERNEST FEELING 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 8 | 4.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | SHINY TWO 後段發力 V/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 4 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | GALLANT CAVALIER V/TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 1 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR 後段發力 H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 12 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | DRAGON BABY E/PC/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 14 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | SHENRON 後段發力 XB/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 5 | 45.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | WONDERFUL FANTASY B H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 13 | 120.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | TREASURE OF FIELD B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 15.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | ATHENA K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 2 | 23.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | SUNNY SMILE TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 112.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 0 | PRESIDENT STAR · C S Shum | — | C S Shum | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MISSION SMART | 25.1% | 3.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | ERNEST FEELING | 18.2% | 5.50 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | ROYAL AGILITY | 9.3% | 10.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 9.0% | 11.09 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 8.3% | 12.07 | 12 |
| 6 | 11 | GALLANT CAVALIER | 4.9% | 20.22 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON BABY | 4.6% | 21.66 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | SHENRON | 4.2% | 23.77 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | RUBY STARS | 3.9% | 25.80 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | ATHENA | 3.7% | 26.84 | 13 |
| 11 | 3 | SHINY TWO | 3.2% | 31.11 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR | 2.6% | 38.94 | 8 |
| 13 | 14 | SUNNY SMILE | 1.7% | 58.77 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | WONDERFUL FANTASY | 1.3% | 75.81 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 34
PLACE
1 21.5
4 29
8 16.5
QUINELLA
4,8 240
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 115.5
1,8 42
4,8 81
FORECAST
8,4 339
TIERCE
8,4,1 1,342
TRIO
1,4,8 308
FIRST 4
1,4,8,13 1,141
QUARTET
8,4,1,13 16,826
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/1,4,8 17,434
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/4 88
4/8 419