沙田 · 2022-05-15 · 15:03
第 5場
2022-05-15沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由M Chadwick策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的WISDOM PATCH勝出，贏出HD。PROSPEROUS WIN獲得亞軍；SMART FOLKS獲得季軍。4.1倍大熱門SMART FOLKS跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WISDOM PATCH PC/TT 1.09.20 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 11.0 | HD |
| 2 | 5 | PROSPEROUS WIN TT1 R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 4 | 25.0 | HD |
| 3 | 12 | SMART FOLKS B K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 4.1 | N |
| 4 | 3 | UTOPIA LIFE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | FIERY DIAMOND B- Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 12 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | TOUCH FAITH P L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 3 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | JAZZ STEED TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | TEAM GOODLUCK CP/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | WE ARE HERO L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 1 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | SUNSET WATCH B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE H/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 11 | 48.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | COMMON ROOM CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 70.0 | 10-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SMART FOLKS | 18.0% | 5.56 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | FIERY DIAMOND | 15.4% | 6.50 | 5 |
| 3 | 9 | TOUCH FAITH | 14.2% | 7.06 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | WISDOM PATCH | 10.9% | 9.18 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | TEAM GOODLUCK | 9.9% | 10.05 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | JAZZ STEED | 8.1% | 12.41 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | UTOPIA LIFE | 6.8% | 14.60 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | PROSPEROUS WIN | 6.4% | 15.56 | 2 |
| 9 | 1 | SUNSET WATCH | 4.4% | 22.84 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | WE ARE HERO | 2.8% | 36.13 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | COMMON ROOM | 2.5% | 40.71 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE | 0.7% | 140.22 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 111
PLACE
5 78.5
11 30.5
12 16.5
QUINELLA
5,11 1,944
QUINELLA PLACE
5,11 513.5
5,12 214
11,12 68.5
FORECAST
11,5 2,651
TIERCE
11,5,12 17,096
TRIO
5,11,12 2,252
FIRST 4
3,5,11,12 1,687
QUARTET
11,5,12,3 59,891
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 24.5
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
8/5 204
8/11 323